2012 Boston Red Sox Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Boston Red Sox were considered by many to be the favorites to win the World Series last year, as they went into September with the best record in baseball. Instead of living up to expectations, the Red Sox suffered the worst collapse in baseball history. The Red Sox went just 7-20 in the final month of the regular season, missing out on the AL Wild Card spot by a single game. They still finished with the fourth-best record in the AL at 90-72, but none of that mattered after rumors came out that the starting staff was consuming beer and fried chicken in the clubhouse during games. The horrible finish resulted in the firing of manager Terry Francona, who has been replaced by Bobby Valentine. It will be up to Valentine and the players themselves to make up for what happened in 2011. Let’s take a look at the Red Sox projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Jarred Saltalamacchia (Catcher) – Saltalamacchia hit a career-high 16 home runs and drove in a career-high 56 RBI, but his lack of discipline resulted in a sub-par .230 batting average. I see no reason why Saltalamacchia can’t put up similar power numbers in 2012, but the Red Sox could do better.
Adrian Gonzalez (First Base) – Gonzalez had an interesting first season in Boston. He posted a solid .338 average with 117 RBI, but his 27 home runs were a disappointment. The All-Star first baseman had just 10 home runs in Fenway last year, which was a big reason why he had his lowest total since 2006. There’s plenty of reason to believe the 29-year-old will bounce back with 30+ home runs in 2012.
Dustin Pedroia (Second Base) – Pedroia bounced back with a big year after his 2010 season was limited to just 75 games. He hit .307 with 21 home runs, 91 RBI and 26 stolen bases, setting career-highs in all three categories. He also won his second Gold Glove award. The 2008 AL MVP is just 28-years-old with the potential to be even better over the next 2-3 seasons.
Nick Punto (Shortstop) – The Red Sox traded away Marco Scutaro to Colorado, opening the door for Punto to be the everyday starter at short. Punto hit .278 in 63 games with the Cardinals last year. He doesn’t have a lot of power, hitting just 14 home runs in 11 seasons, but is solid defensively and a proven leader in the clubhouse.
Kevin Youkilis (Third Base) – Youkilis is one of the best hitters in the game when healthy, but the veteran hasn’t played more than 136 games since 2008. Numerous injuries limited him to just 120 games in 2011, where he finished with a career-worst .258 average to go along with 17 home runs and 80 RBI. If he can play 150 games he could easily hit .300 with close to 30 home runs and 100 RBI.
Carl Crawford (Left Field) – Crawford was a huge disappointment in his first season in Boston. After hitting .305 with 19 home runs, 90 RBI and 47 stolen bases in 2010 with Tampa Bay, he hit just .255 with 11 home runs, 56 RBI and 18 steals, not to mention a horrible .289 OBP. The 30-year-old is expected to miss some time early recovering from knee surgery, but you have to expect better numbers once he gets back in the lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury (Center Field) – Few could have predicted the 2011 season Ellsbury posted. The 185-pound center fielder hit .321 with 32 home runs, 105 RBI, and 39 stolen bases to finish second in the AL MVP voting. His power numbers were a huge surprise, considering he had just 20 home runs and 130 RBI in his previous 349 games. Expect a drop in homers and RBI this season, but he should still hit over .300 with a bunch of steals.
Cody Ross (Right Field) – The Red Sox are excited to see what Ross, a notorious pull-hitter, can do playing the majority of his games in Fenway Park. He hit .240 with 14 home runs and 52 RBI with the Giants a season ago, and figures to get the first shot at the opening in right field.
David Ortiz (Designated Hitter) – Ortiz is well past his prime, but put up some pretty impressive numbers in 2011. The 36-year-old hit .309 with 29 home runs and 96 RBI. The Red Sox would gladly take a similar showing in 2012 from their beloved DH.
Projected Rotation
Jon Lester (LHP) – Lester is coming off another solid season in 2011, where he went 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 31 starts. The 28-year-old heads into 2012 off back-to-back All-Star appearance and the ace of one of the best teams in baseball. Expect a very similar stat line with a possibly a few more wins this season.
Josh Beckett (RHP) – Beckett is being targeted as the ring leader to all the clubhouse drinking that got so much attention, and will likely have to start off strong to save face with the fans of Boston. The veteran went 13-7 with a career-best 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 starts last season, but he has struggled to put strong seasons together late in his career. He went just 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 21 starts in 2010.
Clay Buchholtz (RHP) – A stress fracture in his lower back limited Buchholtz to just 18 starts in 2011. While he wasn’t as effective as his 2009 season, where he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA, he still managed to win six of his 18 starts with a respectable 3.48 ERA last year. The Red Sox are hoping the 27-year-old will return to form and win upwards of 15 games in 2012.
Daniel Bard (RHP) – The Red Sox are counting on Bard to make the transition from reliever to starter this year. He has been one of the best setup guys in baseball the past two seasons with 66 holds, but starting is a completely different game. If he can come anywhere close to his career 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP as a starter, Bard could be one of the big surprises this season.
Alfredo Aceves (RHP) – Aceves is another reliever the Red Sox are trying to stretch out into a starter this season. He posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 55 appearances last season, including four starts. If he can’t make the transition look for Andrew Miller to get another shot at holding down the No. 5 spot in the rotation.
Projected Closer
Andrew Bailey (RHP) – The Red Sox are counting on the Bailey, who they dealt for in a trade with Oakland this winter, to take over the closer role after watching Jonathan Papelbon sign with the Phillies. Bailey has saved 75 games in three seasons with the A’s, posting a career 2.07 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The 27-year-old has converted 89% of his save opportunities, but has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons.
| 2012 Boston Red Sox Odds | |
| World Series | +1000 |
| AL Pennant | +550 |
| OAL East | +300 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O90.5 (-105) |
| U90.5 (-125) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Adrian Gonzalez – 32.5
Kevin Youkilis – 22.5
Jacoby Ellsbury – 20.5
David Ortiz – 25.5
Over/Under Total Stolen Bases in the 2012 Regular Season
Jacoby Ellsbury – 39.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Dustin Pedroia – .300
Jacoby Ellsbury – .302
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Jon Lester – 15.5
Josh Beckett – 13
Clay Buchholz – 13
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Andrew Bailey – 35.5
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DEAR WEB SITE,
BOSTON RED SOX SHOULD GET MORE PITCHERS.
THANKS,
AARON