Bowling Green at Toledo
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Wednesday the Toledo Rockets will look to rebound from an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois when they host the Bowling Green Falcons in MAC action. The Rockets had a chance to take control of the West Division last week, but things just didn’t go their way in a 65-30 loss to the Huskies. The Falcons nearly pulled off an upset win at home over Miami (OH), but ended up losing 24-21 on a last second field goal, their fourth loss this season by three points or less. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 in this series, and the oddsmakers seem to think that will be the case in this one, as the current odds have the Rockets favored by 10 points over the Falcons at home.
Bowling Green (2-8, 1-5 MAC): The Falcons rallied from 14 down in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 21-21, and had the ball with a chance to win, but quarterback Matt Schilz threw his second interception of the game, setting up the game winning field goal for the RedHawks.
Running back Willie Geter scored both touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but finished with just 34 yards on 16 carries. The Falcons as a team had just 44 yards on the ground, and come into the game this weekend ranked last in the country, averaging just 60.5 yards a game. Toledo did allow 422 yards rushing last week to Northern Illinois, but its unlikely that the Falcons will have much success this week, as they just don’t have the same weapons in the running game as the Huskies.
That puts a lot of pressure on Schilz and the receivers to really get the offense going. The Falcons come in averaging 228 yards a game through the air, but in the last three games, Schilz is averaging just 165 yards with one touchdown to six interceptions. The Rockets have struggled against the pass this season, allowing 233 yards a game, so don’t be surprised if the Falcons have a little more success in the passing game this week.
Toledo (6-4, 5-1 MAC): While the Rockets were completely outplayed by the Huskies last week, they didn’t help themselves by committing eight penalties for 92 yards and going just 2 of 11 on third down.
Toledo finished the game with 380 yards of total offense, but most of those yards came in the second half with the game out of reach. Running back Adonis Thomas finished with 152 yards on 10 carries and two touchdowns, and should have a field day against the Falcons, who come in allowing 202 yards a game on the ground.
Quarterback Terrance Owens completed just 18 of 38 attempts for 186 yards with two touchdowns to just one interception, but will need to get off to a much better start this week if the Rockets are going to win big at home.
Looking at the Odds: While I don’t know that the Falcons will have what it takes to win this game, I think this is a good matchup for them, and they should be able to keep it close and cover the spread. This is a huge let down game for the Rockets, who just lost all hopes of winning the division last week. Bowling Green is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. My final score prediction is Toledo 31, Bowling Green 27.
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