Broncos Bills Line


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This Saturday the Denver Broncos will look to move one step closer to winning the AFC West when they go on the road to take on the struggling Buffalo Bills.  The Broncos had their six game winning streak snapped by Tom Brady and the Patriots, as New England beat Denver 41-23. The Bills on the other hand lost their seventh consecutive game, falling 23-30 at home to Miami.

Taking a look at the week 15 NFL lines, oddsmakers currently have Denver favored by 3-points over Buffalo with the total set at 41.5 points.

Denver Broncos:

While the Broncos aren’t happy with the outcome against the Patriots, this team needs to make their focus is on beating the Buffalo Bills. Denver currently leads the AFC West at 8-6, but the Raiders and Chargers are both just a game back at 7-7 and the Chiefs are still a long shot to win the division at 6-8. Denver can eliminate Kansas City with a win this week, but a loss will have every team thinking they have a chance in week 17.

Denver jumped out to an early 16-7 lead over New England, but were down 16-27 by the end of the first half. The Patriots would keep control the rest of the way, as the Broncos offense stalled in the second half.

Tim Tebow completed 11 of 22 attempts for 194 yards and rushed 12 times for 93 yards and two touchdowns, but his late game heroics were put to rest, at least for one week. Denver as a team rushed for 252 yards, as Willis McGahee added 70 yards and Lance Ball put up 64 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown run.

That rushing attack could be headed for an even bigger day against the Bills. Buffalo is 29th in the NFL against the run, allowing 139.5 ypg. Last week they let Reggie Bush rush for 203 yards and a touchdown. It appears the Bills defenders have thrown in the towel. Matt Moore needed just 10 completions to throw for 217 yards and two touchdowns, as the Dolphins had all kinds of big plays in that game.

Buffalo Bills:

Things have definitely not gone the Bills way since they started the season 5-2, and the pure disappointment of failing to meet expectations has this team playing some pretty bad football. Defensively the Bills have allowed at least 23 points in every game during their losing streak,  four times the opposing team has scored 30+. Even though this is the Bills last home game of the season, I don’t expect to see much of a change in effort.

Ryan Fitzpatrick finished with 316 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Dolphins. Those seem like pretty good numbers until you check that he also threw three interceptions. Fitzpatrick has just six touchdown passes to seven interceptions over his last five games.

If there was a bright spot in the loss, it was the play of running back C.J. Spiller, who carried it 12 times for 91 yards and a score while also catching nine passes for 76 yards and another touchdown. They have been waiting for Spiller to step up and be a bigger part of the offense. The key will be backing up that performance with another big game against the Broncos.

Denver’s defense was shredded for 451 yards last week. Giving up 310 passing yards to Tom Brady isn’t all that bad, but allowing the Patriots to rush for 141 yards is cause for concern. For the Bills to have any chance of winning this game, they have to score a lot of points, especially with how bad they are playing defensively.  The Broncos are just 20th against the pass (238.4 ypg) and the run (125.4 ypg), but have played a lot better since Tebow has become the starter.

Betting Trends:

Denver is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Buffalo is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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Comments

2 Responses to “Broncos Bills Line”

  1. kyle on December 22nd, 2011 7:01 AM

    Chiefs are very much in the playoff race. Get your facts straight.

  2. Steve Janus on December 22nd, 2011 9:07 AM

    You are correct. The Chiefs are still in the playoff picture. My statement was more based on my opinion that I don’t think Kansas City will get in. The Chiefs have to win their final two over Oakland and Denver, have the Broncos lose to a Bills team that has lost 7 straight, and the red-hot Chargers have to lose one of their final two. If Buffalo can somehow pull out a win this week and the Lions upset the Chargers, the Chiefs are definitely in business.

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