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Sunday Night NFL Pick: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Written December 28, 2008 by Evan Altemus

broncos_chargers-bf-122608 The NFL game that I want to watch the most this week is the AFC West championship game between Denver and San Diego. Ed Hochuli may once again be able to show his face in the city of San Diego if the Chargers pull out the win. He made the worst mistake of all officials this season back in the earlier match-up between these two teams which cost San Diego the game. I have heard several different opinions on this game, as oddsmakers put out an interesting line of San Diego -9. Before the line came out, I was thinking Chargers all the way. However, the line of 9 made that play come to a screeching halt. Now that Sunday is only two days away, let’s look at this game a little further.

Back in the week two match-up, Denver jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the 2nd quarter and seemed on their way to a blowout. The Chargers closed the deficit to 2 touchdowns by halftime, but it still looked like a win was unlikely as their defense was playing horribly. However, San Diego absolutely dominated the 2nd half, scoring 21 unanswered points, and there could have been more. Denver only mustered one 2nd half score, but it was on the drive of the infamous Hochuli botched call. Something to take away from the 2nd half was that the Broncos could only get 1 touchdown when the Chargers defense was playing horribly and in their first game without Shawne Merriman. There is a reason why this spread is so high. San Diego plays well at home in big games, despite having only a 4-3 record at their stadium. They have ALL of the momentum heading into this game after reeling off three straight wins, while Denver has lost three out of their last five games, including a devastating loss last week at home. Several of the Bronco players have to be thinking things would be different if only they could have finished last week’s 4th quarter drive to end the game. San Diego’s defense really hasn’t played much better since firing Ted Cottrell, just look at the numbers. However, I feel that the Chargers defense will play very motivated and energized because of the situation, making them play much better than they are. I compare this situation to a golf tournament where a player has a big lead in the final holes only to stumble and bogey the last hole, forcing a playoff. The player who rallied to get into the playoff ALWAYS beats the guy who stumbled down the stretch. This line is high but if I was forced to make a play then it would be on San Diego or taken down to -3 in a 6 point teaser. The teaser is probably the best option.

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