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Broncos Packers Line

The Green Bay Packers will look to stay undefeated when they host the Denver Broncos in week 4 action. The Packers are 3-0 after beating the Bears 27-17 in week 3, but they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out. All three wins have been decided by 10 points or less. The Broncos have also found themselves in three tight games to start the season, but are just 1-2 after losing to the Titans 14-17.

Taking a look at the week 4 NFL spreads, oddsmakers currently have Green Bay favored by 12-points over Denver with the total set at 46 points.

Denver Broncos:

The Broncos had a chance to go up 17-10 early in the fourth quarter last week against the Titans, but instead elected to go for it on 4 and 1. They failed to convert and the Titans scored a touchdown with 4:24 remaining to go ahead for the win.

While the fans continue to do beg for Tim Tebow to start at quarterback, head coach John Fox has continued to stick with Kyle Orton. I agree that the Broncos have the best shot at winning with Orton on the field, but he better start playing better if he wants to keep his job. Orton went 24 of 39 for just 173 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to Tennessee.

Orton and the passing game has been slowed by injuries to wide outs Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas. Brandon Lloyd returned to action after missing week 2, but had just four catches for 38 yards.  One positive has been the improved play of second-year wide out Erik Decker, who has 12 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games.

Denver was without starting running back Knowshon Moreno against the Titans, but he hasn’t exactly been all that impressive when he has been on the field. Moreno has just 22 yards on eight attempts. He is expected to play this week, but will likely continue to see a lot of his carries go to Willis McGahee.

What this game is going to come down to is the Broncos ability to stop the Packers passing attack. They rank 13th in the NFL against the pass, but all three of their games have been against teams who focus more on running the football.

Green Bay Packers:

The Packers aren’t showing any signs of a Super Bowl hangover,  and it doesn’t seem likely that they will slow down the rest of this season. This is is the first time the Packers have started 3-0 since 2007.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing attack has been nearly unstoppable in the early goings of 2011. Rodgers leads all NFL quarterbacks with a passer rating of 120.9. He has completed 71.8% of his passes for 917 yards with eight touchdowns to just one interception.

Wide out Greg Jennings leads the team with 18 catches for 263 yards to go along with two touchdowns grabs, but he isn’t the only weapon off to a strong start. Tight end Jermichael Finley has 15 catches for 206 yards and wide out Jordy Nelson has caught 10 for 201. Finley had a huge game last week against the Bears, catching nine passes for 119 yards and three scores.

The Packers have also had a lot of success running the ball to start the season. Ryan Grant and James Starks have combined for 304 yards on 32 carries a piece. Grant had 92 yards in the win over Chicago, but there is a good chance he will miss this game with a back injury.

The Green Bay defense has been outstanding against the run, holding opposing offenses to a league-low 55.0 rushing yards a game. However, they have not been so good against the pass. They are second to last in the NFL, giving up 359.3 passing yards a game.

Betting Trends:

Denver is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Green Bay is 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

If you are looking for some expert advice on who to take this week. Be sure to stop back and check out what Steve Janus has to offer in week 4 of the NFL.