Broncos Patriots Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the New England Patriots will host the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. The Broncos advanced to face the top-seeded Patriots with a thrilling 29-23 overtime win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. These two teams should be pretty familiar with one another. Less than a month ago, New England went into Denver and came away with a 41-23 win, snapping the Broncos six game winning streak. Denver will be out to overcome big odds for a second straight week. The Broncos were 9-point underdogs to the Steelers at home last week.

Taking a look at the NFL playoff lines, oddsmakers currently have the Patriots favored by 13.5-points over the Broncos with the total set at 50.5 points.

Denver Broncos:

The Broncos overtime win over the Steelers is just another chapter in a remarkable season for Tim Tebow and what he has done to this football team. Despite playing at home against a banged up Pittsburgh team, few picked the Broncos to cover the 9-point spread let alone win the game outright.

While Tebow has made a living of winning games he isn’t suppose to, oddsmakers have stacked the odds against the Broncos once again. What a lot of people seem to forget is the Broncos actually had a 16-7 lead over New England the first time these two teams played. The Patriots would go on to score the next 27-points to take complete control of the game, but you can bet the Broncos aren’t lacking any confidence against New England.

Tebow may have completed just 10 of 21 attempts against the Steelers, but he ended up throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns without a single turnover. He also added another 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Demaryius Thomas caught only four passes, but finished the game with 204 yards and a touchdown. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos run game and deep passes will work against the Patriots. Starting wide out Eric Decker suffered a sprained MCL in the game against the Steelers, and is listed as doubtful for Saturday.

The thing that really makes the Broncos a threat this week is how bad the Patriots have played defensively this season. New England gave up more yards than any other team in the NFL. They were 31st against pass (293.9 ypg and 17th against the run (117.1 ypg).

New England Patriots:

While everyone is making a huge deal out of the Broncos win, I have a hard time believing the Patriots weren’t rooting for Denver in that game, especially considering New England lost to Pittsburgh during the regular season. The Patriots did make a surprising move after the Broncos win, as they went out and hired former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as a coaching assistant. What makes this move interesting is the fact that McDaniels left New England to become the head coach of Denver, where he played a big role in drafting Tebow.

Outside of all the drama off the field, the Patriots have to be excited about coming into this game off a bye week. The offensive line likely benefited the most from the extra week, as tackle Matt Light, guard Logan Mankins, and tackle Sebastian Vollmer are all expected to be healthy enough to play.

Tom Brady got off to a bit of a slow start in the first game against the Broncos, but ended up throwing for 320 yards and two touchdowns on 23 of 34 passing. Tight end Aaron Hernandez led the receiving corps with nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. While Hernandez had the big game the first time around, you can bet the Broncos will be focused on slowing down tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Wes Welker.

The passing attack tends to get most of the attention in New England, but you can’t overlook the fact that the Patriots rushed for 141 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos. Denver run defense wasn’t very good in the first round against the Steelers, as they let Pittsburgh pile on 156 yards on just 23 carries.

Betting Trends:

Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

New England is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win in the NFL playoffs.

Comments

Got something to say?