Browns Ravens Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns Saturday in AFC North action. While this Week 16 showdown means a lot to Baltimore, it will be interesting to see what kind of effort Cleveland gives considering they are playing for nothing but pride. The Ravens have won seven straight in this series, including a 24-10 road victory on December 4th in their first meeting this season. Ray Rice rushed for a career-high 204 yards and a touchdown to lead the way as the they outgained the Browns 448-223 for the game.

Taking a look at the NFL spreads for Week 16, I find a line of Baltimore -12.5 over Cleveland with a total set of 38.5 points.

Baltimore

The Ravens know how important home-field advantage would be to them. You don’t have to look much past their record to see that. Baltimore (10-4, 7-0 home) has been nearly unstoppable on home soil, but the road has been a completely different story. They have upset road losses this season to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego. All of those losses have been coming off wins, so the Ravens have yet to lose two in a row this season. They’ll be looking to keep that streak alive Saturday while capping off a perfect home record in 2011.

Baltimore traveled clear across coast last Sunday to San Diego. The Chargers took it to ‘em from start to finish, coasting for a 34-14 victory by game’s end. The Ravens couldn’t sustain anything offensively, mustering just 290 total yards. Joe Flacco was threw two touchdown passes, but he was also picked off two times in the loss. Ray Lewis returned after a four-game injury layoff, but he couldn’t help stop a Chargers offense that racked up 415 total yards.

Even after a sloppy performance against the Chargers, the Ravens still rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense (287.9 yards/game). They are a respectable 15th in total offense (342.0 yards/game) as well. Look for the Ravens to lean on Rice again this weekend. He has rushed for 1,086 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also catching 71 balls for 648 yards and two scores. Baltimore is in control of its own destiny in the AFC North and the race for a first-round bye. They would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a victory Saturday and a win the following week at Cincinnati.

Cleveland

The Browns have certainly been on the short end of the stick when it comes to close games this season. While they have won their share, they have definitely lost their share as well. Cleveland (4-10, 1-6 away) has suffered six losses by 10 points or less this season. A week after nearly upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, the Browns came back last week and suffered another heartbreaker.

Cleveland lost at Arizona 20-17 in overtime last Sunday after giving up a big punt return to Patrick Peterson in the extra session. His 32-yard return set up a 22-yard field goal from Jay Feely to give the Cardinals the win. With starting quarterback Colt McCoy sidelined with a concussion, backup Seneca Wallace played admirably in his place. Wallace threw for 226 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over. Peyton Hillis rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, but it wasn’t enough for the Browns to pull out a victory.

What has been holding the Browns back for most of the season is an offense that ranks 29th in the league in yards (294.7/game). However, they rank a respectable 14th in total defense (333.8 yards/game) thanks to the third-ranked pass defense (188.4 yards/game). They gave up 290 rushing yards in their loss to Baltimore earlier this season, and they rank just 30th against the run (145.4 yards/game). McCoy is listed as doubtful to return, so the Browns will likely turn to Wallace again to try and pull off the upset.

Betting Trends

The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Ravens are a dominant 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games as a home favorite, but only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record.

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