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Buccaneers 49ers Spread

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers are each off to great starts to the 2011 season. These NFC teams meet up Sunday in a game that will have one of them leaving Candlestick Park with a surprising 4-1 record. The 49ers will certainly be looking for payback from a 21-0 home loss to the Bucs last season. Tampa Bay outgained them 299-189 behind a dominant defensive effort.

According to the Week 5 lines, the spread is San Francisco -3 over Tampa Bay with a total set of 41.5 points.

San Francisco

The 49ers find themselves atop the NFC West division, two games ahead of their closest competition. Slow starts have been their problem over the last few seasons, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this year. San Francisco (3-1) blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 for their only loss, but they’ve certainly made up for it with a successful two-week road trip. The 49ers won in Cincinnati 13-8 in Week 3, then followed that up with a 24-23 comeback win at Philadelphia last Sunday.

San Francisco trailed 23-3 in the third quarter, but Alex Smith and Frank Gore would not give in. Smith completed 13 of 17 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns in the second half, and Gore finished with 127 yards on 15 carries, including a game-winning 12-yard touchdown run in the final few minutes. Justin Smith sealed the game by forcing a Jeremy Maclin fumble as Philly was driving for the go-ahead field goal.

To win again this week, the 49ers must be more efficient on offense. They rank 28th in the league in total offense (292.0 yards/game). Another big performance from Gore would certainly help their cause. The 49ers are 11-4 when he reaches the 100-yard mark, and 14-29 when he falls short of it. It has been a tail of two stories for the defense. San Francisco ranks 4th in the NFL against the run (74.0 yards/game), but only 24th against the pass (284.0 yards/game).

Tampa Bay

It hasn’t been pretty, but Tampa Bay (3-1) has found a way to piece together wins late in games. They are tied atop the NFC South division with the New Orleans Saints after a productive first quarter of the season. After a 10-6 campaign last year wasn’t enough to get them into the playoffs, the Bucs have come out very determined in 2011. They overcame a 10-0 deficit and 14 penalties for 106 yards last week to beat the winless Indianapolis Colts 24-17 on Monday Night Football.

LeGarrette Blount scored on a 35-yard run with just 3:15 remaining to give his team their first lead of the game, one they would not relinquish. Josh Freeman threw for a season-high 287 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score. This team certainly knows how to win ugly. They topped Minnesota 24-20 in Week 2 after trailing by 10 points in the fourth quarter, and beat Atlanta 16-13 after nearly blowing a 13-0 lead. Tampa Bay hasn’t started 4-1 since 2005.

For the season, Freeman is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 969 yards and three touchdowns to four interceptions. He has also rushed for 104 yards and two scores. Blount has rushed for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Mike Williams has yet to make much of an impact after leading the team in receiving last year. Surprisingly, their leading receiver in 2011 is Preston Parker, who has 16 grabs for 223 yards and a score. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in total offense (352.8 yards/game) and 20th in total defense (368.0 yards/game), including 11th against the run (101.0 yards/game).

Betting Trends

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. The Bucs are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa Bay is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

The 49ers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. San Francisco is only 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win, and 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.