Buccaneers Packers Line

Written by Steve Janus

The Green Bay Packers will put their undefeated steak on the line this Sunday when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Packers rolled past the Minnesota Vikings 45-7 on Monday Night Football to improve to 10-0, while the Buccaneers dropped to 4-5 with a 9-37 loss at home to Houston. Tampa Bay has surprisingly won three straight in the series, but these two teams haven’t faced each since 2009.

Taking a look at the week 11 NFL lines, oddsmakers currently have Green Bay favored by 14-points with the total set at 48.5 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

It won’t be easy for the Buccaneers to snap out of their recent slump against the defending champs. This is the sixth and final game of a brutal stretch for Tampa Bay. Over the last five games the Buccaneers have had to face San Francisco, New Orleans, Chicago, New Orleans, and Houston. The only win during the entire stretch was a 26-20 win at home against the Saints.

It has been a combination of poor play from both sides of the ball. During this string of games the defense has allowed 31.2 ppg while the offense has managed to average just 14.4 ppg.

In their last game against the Texans, the Buccaneers were outgained 420 to 231 in total yards. Josh Freeman completed just 15 of 33 for 170 yards with one touchdown to three interceptions. Freeman’s poor play is a big reason why the offense has taken a step back of late. He has just six touchdown passes to nine interceptions in his last five games.

One of the big problems I see with this team is they don’t have enough faith in their running game. The Buccaneers are averaging just over 16 rushing attempts over their last three games. LaGarrette Blount had a team-high 34-yards on just 10 carries against the Texans. The fact that this team has been playing from behind a lot recently has played a huge role in why they aren’t running the ball, but this team isn’t going to win many games without getting more from the ground.

With the way things have been going, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay emphasizing the run against the Packers. Green Bay is 8th in the league allowing just 100.4 ypg on the ground, and have made a habit of jumping out to early leads against teams this season.

Green Bay Packers:

There’s no question that the Packers are playing the best football of any team in the league right now. If the defense continues to play like it did against the Vikings, opposing teams have no chance. The Packers defense had allowed at least 424 yards in each of their previous three games, but looked as good as they have all year in their win over Minnesota. Green Bay held the Vikings to just 266 yards after allowing Minnesota to rack up 435 yards back in week 7.

The defensive struggles haven’t been a problem thanks to an offense that is averaging a league-best 35.6 points per game. In their win over Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers went 23 of 30 for 250 yards and four touchdowns. Rodgers is completing a ridiculous 72.9% of his attempts, and right now it doesn’t look like there is a defense out there that could slow him down.

Rodgers connected with Jordy Nelson five times for 63 yards and two touchdowns, but Nelson wasn’t the only Packer involved in the offense. 10 different players finished with at least one catch.

The offense doesn’t figure to have much trouble keeping things going against the Buccaneers this Sunday. Tampa Bay is 28th against the pass (263.0 ypg) and 29th against the run (138.2 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Tampa Bay is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Green Bay is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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