Buccaneers Saints Spread

Written by Jack Jones

Off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless St. Louis Rams last weekend, the New Orleans Saints look to take out their frustrations on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9 Sunday. The Saints will also be looking for revenge from a 26-20 road loss to the Bucs back on October 16th. Tampa Bay forced four turnovers, including three interceptions from Drew Brees in that game. Josh Freeman threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns to outduel Brees.

Odds makers have set a line of New Orleans -9 over Tampa Bay and a total of 50 points for the rematch.

New Orleans

The Saints will certainly be hungry when they welcome the Buccaneers on Sunday. New Orleans (5-3, 3-0 home) looks to remain without a blemish at home, winning their first three games in the Superdome by an average score of 44.0 to 17.7. They will also be looking to shake off a 21-31 loss at St. Louis last Sunday. Even with that loss, the Saints sit atop the NFC South standings with a half-game lead on the Falcons and Bucs.

St. Louis held New Orleans to a season-low 283 total yards. Drew Brees was intercepted twice, and the Saints could only muster up 56 rushing yards on 20 carries. Brees barely managed to keep alive his touchdown pass streak on a meaningless score in the final seconds. He was also sacked six times, including three from defensive end Chris Long. Stephen Jackson had his best game of the season for the Rams, rushing for 159 yards and two touchdowns to lead the way.

Even after that poor performance, New Orleans still ranks 2nd in the league in total offense (444.2 yards/game) and 1st in passing offense (326.8 yards/game). However, the Saints rank just 15th in total defense (346.0 yards/game). This unit has been inconsistent for them all season. Brees is having an MVP-caliber year by completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 2,746 yards with 19 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Rookie Mark Ingram leads all rushers with 329 yards and three scores, though Darren Sproles (694 yards from scrimmage, four TD) has been their most productive back. Tight end Jimmy Graham has been their biggest surprise with a team-high 49 receptions for 713 yards and five touchdowns.

Tampa Bay

While motivation will not be on the side of the Buccaneers in this one, preparation certainly will be. Tampa Bay (4-3, 1-1 away) is coming off a bye week after their 24-18 loss to the Chicago Bears over in London on October 23rd. With two weeks to prepare for the Saints, they certainly should be ready. This is a team that continues to impress despite little expectations across the league. They’ll have their hands full Sunday against their highly-motivated NFC South rivals.

Josh Freeman nearly mounted another improbable comeback in his young career against the Bears last time out, but it wasn’t to be. Trailing 21-5 entering the fourth quarter, the Bucs were able to cut that deficit to 21-18 thanks to a pair of touchdown passes from Freeman. He found Kellen Winslow on a 2-yard touchdown with 12:18 remaining, and then hit Dezmon Briscoe on a 24-yard strike with 7:17 to go. Chicago would tack on a 25-yard field goal with 1:55 left, and Freeman was picked off for a fourth time with 37 seconds remaining by D.J. Moore to seal the game.

Statistically speaking, Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in the league. The Bucs are just 29th in total defense (391.1 yards/game) and 15th in total offense (340.4 yards/game). Their secondary has been torched for 267.7 passing yards/game, and they gave up 383 to Brees in their first meeting. Freeman is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,723 yards with seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Their running game has been slowed by injuries, but leading rusher LeGarrette Blount (328 yards, three TD) is expected to return this week after missing the last two games with a knee injury.

Betting Trends

The Buccaneers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa Bay is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. They have responded well following a loss, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in this situation.

Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New Orleans, and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this series.

If you want winning NFL advice for Week 9, then trust in expert handicapper Jack Jones to deliver.

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