Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings


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This Sunday the Buffalo Bills will look to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss when they go on the road to take on Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. The Bills nearly came away with an overtime win over the Steelers last week, but wide out Steve Johnson failed to bring in a wide open touchdown grab, and the Steelers wound up kicking a field goal for a 19-16 win. The Vikings got off to a strong start under interim head coach Leslie Frazier, beating Washington 17-13 for just their second win in their last six games. Even though the Bills last four losses have been by three points, the oddsmakers are still favoring Minnesota by nearly a touchdown in this one, as the current odds have the Vikings listed as 6.5-point favorites over the Bills at home.

Buffalo (2-9, 1-4 Away): The Bills are just the fifth team to ever lose three overtime games in one season, and they still have five games to go. While the Bills may have blown a golden opportunity to win in overtime, they have to be wondering what could have been if they could have turned one of their three fourth quarter field goals into a touchdown.

Buffalo got another strong performance from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who completed 23 of 45 for 265 yards and a touchdown, extending his touchdown streak to 12 games. Fred Jackson did most of the work on Fitzpatrick’s lone touchdown toss, going 65 yards on a catch and run. Jackson finished the game with five catches for 104 yards, and also had 59 yards rushing on 12 carries.

Johnson finished with seven catches for 68 yards, and you could really tell that he was devastated from dropping what would have been the game winning touchdown. Minnesota comes in ranked fifth in the NFL against the run, giving up just 93 yards a game, so the Bills will need a big day from Johnson if they plan on winning this weekend.

Minnesota (4-7, 3-2 Home): While the Vikings win over the Redskins, not only gave Minnesota its first road win of the season, but gave this team some confidence heading into the home stretch of the season. What was even more impressive was the fact that the Vikings held on without star running back Adrian Peterson, who was forced to leave in the first half with a right ankle injury.

While Peterson is expected to be back this week, the Vikings figure to be just fine if he needs  a week off. Backup Toby Gerhart stepped in for Peterson and rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. The Vikings will go up against the Bills run defense that is allowing a league-worst 167 yards a game on the ground, so no matter who runs for Minnesota, they figure to have a big day.

Brett Favre went 15 of 23 for 172 yards with no touchdowns, but for the first time this season, Favre didn’t have an interception or lose a fumble. With the way the Bills struggle against the run, I look for another low key day from Favre this week.

Looking at the Odds: I think you have to take the Vikings to beat the Bills by at least a touchdown in this one. Minnesota will be able to slow down one of the Bills biggest weapons in Jackson, and offensively Peterson/Gerhart should be able to run wild on the Bills defense. Minnesota is 20-8 ATS  in home games after a win by 6 or less points since 1992. My final score prediction is Minnesota 24, Buffalo 17

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