2011 Buffalo Bills Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Buffalo Bills opened to the 2010 season with eight straight losses, before finally beating the Detroit Lions at home on Nov. 7. The Bills would go on to finish the season 4-12 overall. It was the first season under head coach Chan Gailey. While Gailey had the offense playing better than expected, defensively the Bills gave up a league-worst 169.6 rushing yards per game. The focus this offseason has been turning the defense around, as the Bills used seven of their nine draft picks on that side of the ball. To get a better idea of what the Bills will look like in 2011, here is quick breakdown of the offense and defense.
Offense:
The Bills opened the 2010 season with Trent Edwards as their starting quarterback, but he was replaced after just two games by Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick leading the way, the Bills passing offense improved from 30th in 2009 to 24th in 2010. Fitzpatrick threw for 3,000 yards with 23 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He impressed the coaches enough to keep the Bills from adding a quarterback in the draft.
Coming into the season it didn’t look like the Bills had much at the wide receiver position, but Steve Johnson emerged in his third season to lead the team with 82 catches for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Lee Evans finished second on the team with 37 catches, but he is now a member of the Baltimore Ravens. Buffalo has a couple of nice slot receivers in Roscoe Parrish and David Nelson, but it’s unclear who will replace Evans on the outside. One option could by second-year wide out Marcus Easley, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. The Bills also added Brad Smith in free agency, but he figures to be used more in a Wildcat role.
Buffalo has one of the more underrated running backs in the league in Fred Jackson, and a lot of that has to do with the Bills not really being much of a factor in the AFC East. Jackson rushed for 927 yards and five touchdowns in 2010, but really shined once the team got rid of Marshawn Lynch. Jackson is joined by 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller, who had a bit of a disappointing first season with 283 yards and no rushing touchdowns.
The Bills didn’t do a lot to improve an offensive line this offseason, and it could really hurt their chances of taking that next step on this side of the ball. They look solid on the inside, but I am not sold on left tackle Demetrius Bell and current right tackle Mansfield Wrotto, who has made the move from guard this offseason.
Defense:
The Bills wanted to get better against the run, and they believe they did just that with their pick of Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, who is expected to take over one of the 3-4 defensive end spots. While I think Dareus has the potential to become a really good player, I don’t think the Bills will see those results for a couple years, as it takes 3-4 linemen some time to adjust to the NFL game. Dareus will be joined by tackles Kyle Williams and Torell Troup, along with defensive ends Dwan Edwards and Alex Carrington.
Buffalo will have a completely different look at linebacker this season. They no longer have the services of Akin Ayodele, Aaron Maybin, and Paul Posluszny, but have added in the likes of free agent Nick Barnett and rookie Kelvin Sheppard. The two starters back are outside linebackers Shawne Merriman and Chris Kelsay. Barnett and Sheppard figure to end up starting on the inside.
The Bills also have to replace safety Donte’ Whitney, who finished second on the team with 138 tackles in 2010. It looks as though veteran Bryan Scott will take over for Whitney and team up with fellow safety Jairus Byrd. At corner, Buffalo brings back veterans Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence, but they are really hoping Leodis McKelvin can finally turn the corner and become the impact player they envisioned.
Prediction: 4th AFC East, 4-12 Overall – I think the Bills are headed in the right direction, but they are still at least one more offseason from really turning things around. I don’t expect the defense to just miraculously get better against the run (lost top 3 tacklers from 2010), and they are definitely not talented enough to compete with the top teams on a consistent basis.
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