Butler vs LSU: NCAA Basketball Tournament Predictions

Written March 16, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz

butler-lsu-ncaa-tournament-predictions-031609 The LSU Tigers are the SEC regular season Champions. They were knocked out in the SEC tournament by the upset minded Mississippi State Bulldogs who capped off their remarkable run by winning the SEC tournament. The Tigers are led by their fantastic guard Marcus Thornton who averages 21 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. The Tigers have other players who contribute consistently, one being forward Tasmin Mitchell who puts in 16 points and collects 7 rebounds per game, the other is point guard and team leader Bo Spencer. He averages 12 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists per game. The Tigers average 75 points per game as a team which is superior to their opponent Butler who tallies 67 points per game. However, LSU’s defense has been inconsistent this year. They allow 65.5 ppg while Butler only gives up 58 ppg. The fact that LSU plays in the SEC and Butler plays in the Horizon league is taken into account though. The area where LSU might have a significant problem is matching up against Horizon League Player Of The Year, Butler’s star F/C, Matt Howard. While Chris Johnson has the size and length to disrupt Howard, he will not be able to face up against him as Howard is a great mid range shooter. He also is an above average passer as a big man. The Tigers are going to try to make this a track meet. They do not want to allow Butler to set up their half court set offense. Trent Johnson is a good coach, he will have his team focused on the task at hand and not the loss to Mississippi State in the conference tourney. Being focused is one thing, executing will be another. Butler is a 2.5 point underdog against LSU in the first round of the tournament.

The Butler Bulldogs are the regular season Horizon League Champions. They were upset by The Cleveland State Vikings in the Horizon League tournament championship. That is not something that I feel will effect The Bulldogs in their first round match up. This young Butler squad is very good and vastly underrated. They are led by as stated above the Player Of the Year in the Horizon conference Matt Howard. He averages 14 points and 7 rebounds a game. His numbers however do not show his true impact on this team as he is a clutch performer night in and night out. The engine that runs this mid-major powerhouse is freshman point guard Shelvin Mack. He has been a key player for his team averaging 12 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assist a game. Howard and Mack are so very important for Butler to have success, but in my opinion the x-factor in this game will be the play of yet another freshman for Butler, Gordon Heyward. He tallies 14 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assist a game. Heyward is an above average defender and a guy who I see causing issues for LSU. Butler has beat Northwestern and Xavier out of conference while LSU has only beaten Washington State out of conference. The Bulldogs are a better defensive team, shoot a tad better from the line and have more depth then the Tigers. Expect Coach Brad Stevens to have his young Bulldog’s ready to execute at a high level. See my notes below for further information.

Haimo’s Hot Notes: What makes me lean heavily on Butler in this game is as follows. Butler’s three best players have strengths that LSU is very weak at. Matt Howard will face up near the paint and extend The Tigers big men to guard him, not something LSU’s big men would choose to do. Shelvin Mack is a very strong and quick point guard. He will prevent Bo Spencer of LSU from playing his style of ball. Gordon Heyward, my x-factor and player of the game prediction will be hot from outside and contribute in Butler’s team defense mentality. Butler has went 2-1 SU against the best out of conference teams they have played (beating Northwestern & Xavier). The only team LSU beat out of conference was Washington State, they also got beat by Utah badly 91-61. Take Butler here as this is my BEST BET of all the South first round games. The Bulldogs are a great tournament team and match up very well in this 1st round showdown with the Tigers from LSU. Here is a trend to chew on. LSU is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on a neutral site. That’s not very clutch if you ask me. Take Butler +2.5 and play it safe in case of an inside cover. While I do believe they will win, when you can get 2.5 points, you do not want to be greedy.

Butler was 16-12-1 ATS this year

LSU was 13-12 ATS this year

Betting Line: LSU -2.5

Jordan’s Pick: Take Butler +2.5

Documented Record To Date

9-7 Overall

5-1 Best Bets

Get more out of your college basketball betting during the tournament with more great NCAA basketball picks from some of our other expert handicappers. They’ll help you beat the NCAA basketball odds in this year’s tournament.

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