BYU at TCU Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Friday the TCU Horned Frogs will take on the BYU Cougars at Cowboys Stadium. While this is technically a non-conference game, I expect the atmosphere to be just as if this was another Mountain West Conference clash. BYU decided to pack up and leave the conference to become an Independent, but TCU will also be leaving the MWC for the Big 12 next season. The Horned Frogs come in off an impressive 69-0 win over New Mexico, pushing their overall record to 5-2. The Cougars dominated Idaho State 56-3 for their fifth straight win. These two teams played at TCU a year ago, with the Horned Frogs winning easily 31-3.

Taking a look at the week 9 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have TCU favored by 13-points over BYU.

BYU Cougars:

Things didn’t look all that great for the Cougars after opening the season 1-2, but this team has made a trend of finding ways to win close games. Before their blowout win over lowly Idaho State last week, each of their previous four wins had come by 13 points or less.

The turning point in the season came back against Utah State, when head coach Bronco Mendenhall decided to insert junior Riley Nelson at starting quarterback over Jake Heaps. Nelson rallied BYU from 11 down in the fourth quarter for a 27-23 win, and has been lights out ever since. Nelson has completed 62% of his attempts for 833 yards with 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He has thrown for 200 yards and three touchdowns in each of his three starts.

BYU is averaging 41 points per game under Nelson, well above the 18 points they were averaging with Heaps as the starter. Mendenhall has a strong history of getting the best out of his team late in the season. Last year BYU started out just 2-5 before finishing the year 5-1.

Not only has Nelson helped the passing game get on track, but he as also added life to a running game that was averaging just 68 yards rushing over their first four games. Dating back to the Utah State game, BYU is averaging 249 yards a game on the ground. Nelson is a big reason why, rushing for 276 yards during that stretch.

TCU comes in ranked 37th in total defense, allowing just 347 yards a game, but that doesn’t mean the Cougars can’t attack and put points on the board. TCU allowed 564 yards to Baylor and 461 yards to SMU in their two losses this season.

TCU Horned Frogs:

While the defense didn’t play well in the Horned Frogs only two losses this season, this team has to feel like they could be 7-0. They lost 48-50 at Baylor and 33-40 to SMU in overtime. They have won every other game by at least 13 points.

Offensively TCU features the 18th best rushing attack in the country, averaging 217.4 ypg. What makes the Horned Frogs rushing attack so dangerous is they have three different backs who can take over a game. Waymon James leads the way with 450 yards, Matthew Tucker has 393 and team-high seven touchdowns, and Ed Wesley has added 349 yards on just 47 attempts.

The Horned Frogs ability to run the ball all over teams has really opened up the passing game for sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall, who has completed 69.7% of his attempts for 1,566 yards with 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

Last year TCU absolutely dominated the Cougars on both sides of the ball. They outgained BYU 381 to 147. I have a hard time believing we will see a similar advantage this time around. BYU is 23rd against the run (123.9 ypg) and 50th against the pass (217.4 ypg). The Horned Frogs are also playing without star quarterback Andy Dalton this time around.

Betting Trends:

BYU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

TCU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football.

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