California at UCLA Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The UCLA Bruins host the California Golden Bears in a Pac-12 showdown Saturday at 7:00 EST. The short-handed Bruins will be looking to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this series. Cal has won the last three meetings all by 19 points or more, outscoring UCLA 121-53 in the process. The Bears were victorious at home 35-7 last year. Odds makers believe the edge goes to Cal again this weekend.

The sportsbooks in Las Vegas have set a line of Cal -5 over UCLA with a total of 50 points.

California

After opening the season with three straight victories, the Golden Bears would go on to lose three in a row. California (4-3, 1-3 Pac-12) put an end to that skid with a convincing 34-10 home win over Utah last Saturday. They held the Utes scoreless through the first three quarters, and built a 34-0 lead early in the fourth before allowing a couple scores in garbage time late. Cal outgained Utah 384-178 for the game and forced four turnovers.

The Bears rank very well in both important offensive and defensive categories this season. Cal is 38th in the FBS in total offense (429.0 yards/game) and 43rd in scoring offense (30.0 yards/game). They have been even better on the other side of the ball. Cal ranks 26th in the country in total defense (330.2 yards/game), including 24th against the run (115.6 yards/game). Stopping the ground game will be very important this weekend against a one-dimensional UCLA offense.

Quarterback Zach Maynard leads the 19th-ranked passing attack (293.0 yards/game) into the Rose Bowl Saturday night. Maynard is only completing 54.2 percent of his passes, but he has thrown for 1,840 yards and 12 touchdowns to six interceptions on the season. Expect a heavy dose of Isi Sofele, who leads the team with 627 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Cal has two stud receivers in Keenan Allen (60 receptions, 906 yards, five TD) and Marvin Jones (40, 599, three TD) who are tough covers for anyone.

UCLA

There are a lot of headlines surrounding the Bruins after their 48-12 loss to Arizona last week. Frustration boiled over in the closing seconds of the first half. A brawl that spanned some 60 yards across the field broke out after a streaker dressed like an official ran onto the field. There was pushing and shoving, including a few wild punches thrown. Arizona defensive back Shaquille Richardson and UCLA receiver Taylor Embree were ejected. The Wildcats outgained the Bruins 573-323 in the win.

UCLA (3-4, 2-2 Pac-12) now has a wide receiver corps that is depleted due to suspensions. Senior Taylor Embree, junior Randall Carroll and sophomores Richy Marvray and Shaq Evans were suspended by the Pac-12 for their roles in starting and escalating the brawl. The Bruins are now down to just seniors Nelson Rosario and Josh Smith, and junior Jerry Rice Jr. Freshman Devin Lucien has maintained his redshirt status to this point, but head coach Rick Neuheisel may elect to use him against Cal. He also stated that junior Jerry Johnson may be available after returning from a fractured ankle suffered last year.

For a unit that ranks 72nd in the FBS in total offense (383.1 yards/game), this is not good news. They are already without starting QB Richard Brehaut, and backup Kevin Prince has not shown well. Prince is completing just 53.4 percent of his passes for 543 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. Johnathan Franklin has been a bright spot at running back, rushing for a team-high 520 yards and two touchdowns. Rosario is by far their best receiving threat, catching 30 balls for 558 yards this year. The UCLA defense hasn’t held up their end of the bargain, either. The Bruins rank 106th in the FBS in total defense (436.2 yards/game) and 108th in scoring defense (34.4 points/game).

Betting Trends

The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The Bruins are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 conference games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.

The Golden Bears are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

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