Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Spread
The Detroit Lions (4-9, 2-5 away) travel to face the Arizona Cardinals (4-9, 3-3) this Sunday in a battle between two of the worst teams in the NFC. Pride will be on the line, and oddsmakers have installed Detroit as a 6-point favorite over Arizona in this one.
Why Detroit Covers
The Lions are one of the best 4-9 teams in the history of the NFL. This team has simply continued to beat itself week after week despite putting up numbers that rank right up there among the league’s best. All nine of their losses have come by 10 points or less, and they have set an NFL record by blowing three double-digits leads this season.
One look at the numbers and it’s easy to see what this team is capable of. Detroit ranks 2nd in the league in total offense at 413.8 yards per game and 13th in total defense at 348.5 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 65.3 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 9-4 rather than one that is 4-9.
The Arizona Cardinals may have quit. They have become the first team in NFL history to start a season 4-0 before losing their next nine in a row. They were beaten 58-0 by the Seattle Seahawks last week in a lackluster effort. Six of Arizona’s nine losses during this skid have come by 7 points or more, including five by 14 or more.
Safety Adrian Wilson, who has played 12 seasons with the Cardinals, expressed doubt Sunday that he’d be back with Arizona. Darnell Docket was final a “six figures” amount last week for spitting at teammate Kerry Rhodes and disobeying the team’s plan to let the Jets score two weeks ago in a loss to New York.
This play falls into a system that is 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (ARIZONA) – off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a losing record.
Why Arizona Covers
The Lions have lost five straight, and they have to be extremely frustrated with all of their close losses this season. Off a 20-27 loss at Green Bay in which they blew a 14-3 lead early, the Lions may not even show up this week. It’s much tougher to recover from a close loss than it is to come back from a blowout defeat.
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s statements indicate he is not going to quit on his team and the fans. “I apologize to our fans and everyone associated with our organization. That was embarrassing,” he said. “We owe it to them, our fans, our supports to give them a better product than we did today and going forward that’s what we’ve got to do, we’ve got to work to get better than that.”
Arizona has played pretty well defensively this season. It is giving up 22.5 points per game overall, including 19.5 points per game at home where it is a respectable 3-3 on the year. It ranks 12th in the league in total defense at 337.7 yards per game allowed.
Detroit’s strength is a passing attack that ranks 1st in the league at 307.8 yards per game. Arizona has the antidote as it ranks 5th in the league against the pass, allowing just 197.1 yards per game through the air.
The Lions are just 4-18 against the spread in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. They are actually losing in this spot 23.1 to 26.7 on average. Arizona is 26-13 against the spread in its last 39 home games following three or more consecutive losses. The Cardinals are 22-8 against the spread in their last 30 home games vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more passing yards per game.