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Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

This Thursday the NFL Network has the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers will look to bounce back from a 22-17 loss at home to the New York Jets last week, while the Panther will look to build off their second win of the season, as they beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-12 at home. As you might expect the oddsmakers aren’t giving Carolina much of a chance in this one, as the current odds have the Steelers favored by 14-points over the Panthers at home.

Carolina (2-12): At first glance you might not think the Panthers have much of a chance this week at Pittsburgh, but surprisingly they haven’t played all that bad against the AFC North this season considering how bad their season has been. Carolina lost 20-7 against Cincinnati early in the year, lost 37-13 against Baltimore, but that game was much closer before two late interceptions were returned for touchdowns, and then lost by just one at Cleveland.

For the Panthers to have a shot at keeping close against the Steelers, they are going to have to run the ball effectively, something they have done a much better job of late. Jonathan Stewart rushed for 137 yards against the Cardinals, and has rushed for at least 90 yards in each of the Panthers last four games, including a 133 yard performance against the Falcons two weeks ago.

Quarterback Jimmy Clausen threw his first touchdown pass since week four against the Saints, and by far had his best game of his rookie season, completing 13 of 19 for 141 yards and a quarterback rating of 107.6.

The Panthers defense will be the key to them keeping this game close, as the offense simply doesn’t have the talent to put up 30 points, but they may be catching the Steelers at the right time. Pittsburgh is averaging just 18 points over their last four games, and a lot of those points came from their defense.

Pittsburgh (10-4): This is a very critical game for the Steelers, who can secure a playoff spot with a win this week, but winning without safety Troy Polamalu on the field hasn’t been so easy for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is just 5-7 without him in the lineup.

Without Polamalu last week against the Jets, the Steelers gave up their highest rushing total of the season, as New York ran for 106 yards on 27 carries, and only created one sack. I know the Panthers don’t have the offensive talent that the Jets do, but if they allow Carolina to move the ball on the ground, this game is going to be a lot closer than people expect.

This is the game that the Steelers offense has to step up and get the job done, and while Ben Roethlisberger is the leader of this group, it is running back Rashard Mendenhall that figures to play a big role against the Panthers. Mendenhall rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries against the Jets last week, and now goes up against a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd against the run, allowing 126 yards a game. It doesn’t matter how the Steelers win this game, as long as they improve to 11-4, so I expect Mendenhall to get plenty of carries and to be a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Looking at the Odds: I think you have to take the Panthers at +14 in this game. The Steelers are not the same team without Polamalu, and while they should still pull out the win at home, I don’t think there is going to be a lot of scoring in this game, which makes the Panthers the way to go. My final score prediction is Pittsburgh 24, Carolina 13.