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Why You Should Use a Sports Handicapper

Steve Janus — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:22:54 +0000

What’s the point of using a handicapper? I’ve been asked this question hundreds of times throughout my career, and I feel like I’ve always had a pretty good answer. Most people don’t have the time and/or energy to pour over game statistics and trends; to do the kind of research it takes to be successful over a long period of time betting on sports. Believe me when I as that I’ve heard it all before. People claiming they win 90% of the time they bet or they “know a guy” who has inside info and hits like 80% every single year. The problem is, that every time we’ve asked to have these players send in their plays so we can track them, they never live up to the hype. A good handicapper is going to hit around 57-60%, give or take, throughout any given season (it may be higher or lower in some sports, for instance, baseball, which relies heavily on the money line).

So what? You say. Anyone can hit 60% of their picks. Right? The fact of the matter is that your average bettor wins more like 45% of their best over the course of the year. Most people remember “the good times” when they won 10 of 12 bets, etc. and think the winning will last forever, but it doesn’t. Some people can be successful by making a few quick, big bets and cashing out, but, for the most part, this method of betting is going to drain your bankroll more often than it is going to fill it up.

Let’s look at some quick math to see why it is worth signing up with a consistent handicapper for more than just a day.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume you are an above-average bettor that likes a moderate amount of action and you bet $110 per game to win $100. Let’s say you bet on 28 games over the course of a week, and you do pretty well. You hit 15 of your 28 games (54%, well above average). So you won $1500 and lost $1430 for a total profit of $70.

Instead, let’s say you pay for a handicapper that wins 57% of his games, on average. You pay $150 for a weekly package and he goes 16-12 (57%). In this case you would have won $1600, lost $1320, giving you a profit of $280, minus the cost of the package ($150), giving you a total profit of $130. Not bad, and certainly better than the $70 you won on your own.

Now, let’s say you choose a handicapper that has an good week and hits 17 of 11 picks (61%). The cost of the package, again, is $150 (which is about average). You would have won $1700 and lost $1210 for $490, minus the package you’re still walking away with $340 in profit.

So, what’s the point? The point is that even the smallest percentage matters. In the cases above, hitting just 1 or 2 more bets per week is going to pay for itself. If you come into betting with a handicapper thinking he’s going to hit every single game every single night of every month, you’re always going to be disappointed. But if you come into the experience with the right mindset, a more realistic one, that a handicapper can help you win more games over a given period of time and help you to maximize your profits, you’ll have a good handicapping experience. Just remember that any improvement in the % of the bets you win is going to help you in the long run. Thanks for reading and good luck!

Sports Betting Discipline

Ryan Moss — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:00:53 +0000

There are millions of reasons out there as to why 95% of people who wager on sports end up losing year after year. I have found that one of the biggest reasons people lose is due to a lack of discipline. It may seem redundant but money management is the key to success in winning long term at the racket we call sports betting. You must have a strict money management plan in place before even thinking about making an investment in sports betting. It sounds simple right? Create a money management plan and stick to it and you’ll be on the plus side is all you have to do. However, most bettors go erratically off the map and end up losing year after year.

Two things happen to most bettors: they get greedy when they win and desperate when they lose. When bettors are on a hot streak, they try to stretch their winnings by doubling their wager sizes to make a real big score only to be back to even when one big game goes down. You should never double your bet size just because you are on a hot streak. Every game has a 50-50 outcome, no matter how you look at it. So to be more accurate, if you won early in the day, you were on a hot streak. What happens later in the day has nothing to do with what you did in the morning or afternoon. I only increase my bet size after I have increased my total betting bankroll by 25%. This keeps my break-even percent at 52.38% and allows me to gradually up my bets in order to increase my return on investment. I stay disciplined and focused on winning consistently instead of getting overly excited over a small amount of success.

The second major mistake bettors make is they chase their losses. They’ve got to get even. But you have to look at sports betting as a marathon, not a sprint. You have to be patient and keep grinding away day after day. Stick to your money management system and eventually things will turn around. You must know there will be winning streaks. There will be losing streaks and there will be times when you float around the 52.38% break-even percent. When in the midst of a losing streak, stick to your handicapping principles and only wager on those games in which you believe you have a 60% chance of winning. Don’t get desperate and plunk down a large amount of money outside of your betting range just because it’s on television and you have to get back to even.

One last piece of advice I have is to not decrease your betting size when losing. That makes it even harder to get back to even. Keep in mind that you are investing on wagers that have a 60% chance of winning and that eventually, you will get your money back. Grind away and ride out the losing streak by keeping your bet size the same. If you stay disciplined and don’t chase, you will keep your bankroll alive to see another day.

College Basketball Betting: Importance of Team Motivation

Ryan Moss — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:24:26 +0000

Since there are so many more basketball games played then football, there are more instances of a team letting down throughout the course of a season. Let’s face it; there are 82 games played in the NBA regular season compared to 16 in the NFL. And there are approximately 30 games played for each team in college basketball compared to 12 in college football. My point is that there will be times when a team is tempted to take a game off which makes handicapping motivation in basketball all that more important.

I like teams that are going to be motivated to play in all sports but especially basketball because of the length of the season. I want a team that is hungry to play and crush their opponent and not a team who might be tempted to take a day off and put the car in cruise control. Teams playing at home are generally more motivated and that’s why almost all teams have a better home record then away. They have the home crowd energy to feed off of which is absolutely critical especially in an emotional sport like college basketball. Teams also take the “We must defend our home turf,” attitude which forces them to play better. The statistics don’t lie; teams just play better at home. Bet on College Basketball with BetUS.

Other factors can come into play as well. A team coming off a tough or embarrassing loss, are more apt to come out with more energy to rectify their poor play. I not only handicap with statistics, I like to dig deep into local newspaper articles available on the internet. I read quotes from coaches and players about the upcoming game and what it means to them. Teams are also especially motivated when they have lost to their opponent in the most recent game against one or another, hence the phrase “revenge game.” Teams don’t like losing and when they have an opportunity to avenge that loss, they seem to play extra hard. Rivalry games also seem to bring out the best in teams, particularly the team that is at home and also the team that lost the most recent game between the two rivals.

Do your homework on the teams. Read newspaper articles, look at recent history, how the teams have been playing, and try and find an edge in motivation. Motivated teams are teams that you don’t want to play. They’re hungry. They’ll hustle after loose balls, defend harder, expend more energy, and do whatever it takes to win. This is the type of team I want my money on.

When you bet on college basketball this season get expert NCAA basketball picks from our proven handicappers. If you want to beat the college basketball odds there is simply no better choice. Grab today’s best college basketball picks and start winning now.

How Sportsbooks Set Betting Odds

Jack Jones — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:15:45 +0000

There is no doubt that the odds makers at the major online sportsbooks have great jobs, but it’s also a stressful career. They have to make sure that the betting lines they release are an accurate reflection of the public’s perception or else they could quickly find themselves out on the street. There are still people out there who think that the bookie’s job is to pull the wool over players’ eyes and try and win their money. However, the books just want to grind away their profit with the juice so let’s take a look at how the odds are set.

Totals

Las Vegas sportsbooks and online shops alike pay close attention to the numbers released by the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which is a private company that provides a service of setting the odds for casinos. However, an online book like Bodog will take into account their customers’ habits in terms of betting the over or under for certain teams in certain situatoins. Plus, injuries and changes in coaching strategies are not reflected in the early lines released by LVSC, so the book has to adapt as new information comes forward. It’s extremely important to take any news about the expected pace of the game into account since how many shots taken during the 48 minutes will have a direct effect on the total score.

Line Movements

The goals of the bookie is to have balanced action on the game, so the winners get paid by the losers and the sportsbook collects their profit from the vigorish. That rarely happens in real life, especially in sports that do not use point spreads. If Team A is getting all of the action then they will move the line toward Team B to try and balance out the money. I know Bodog’s favorite trick is to move the vig from -110 to -105 or +100 before moving the actual spread a half-point or more.

Can You Profit from Line Movements?

Without a doubt. It’s easier to do in football or during the first set of games during the NCAA basketball tournament because there are several days between when the lines come out and the games are played. The betting public tends to pile money in on their favorite teams once they get off work on Fridays so if you anticipate the line moves coming at these times you can take advantage. Another way to use line movements to your advantage is through middling. Let’s say it’s Tournament time and the first round has LSU taking on Arizona. LSU is an early 3-point favorite and the line moves to -5 later in the week. Well now you can take Arizona +7 and hope that the game ends with LSU winning between five and seven points. If it’s five or seven, you get a win and a push, but if it’s by six, you win both of your bets. Any other result only creates a loss of the vig.

What Stats are Most Relevant in Setting the Line?

For head-to-head matchups the best thing you can look at are the most recent head-to-head matchups at the same venue. The habits of the general public are constant over time, so ATS results in general have a pretty long shelf life, but don’t go too far back in time.

Remember to check out our Bodog review to find out why we recommend using them for your sports betting!

Futures Betting

Jack Jones — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:46:55 +0000

Some of you might be wondering just what a futures bet even is, so I’m going to start out with an explanation before moving on to the details. Hopefully after reading this article you’ll be able to figure out if future bets are a wager you should be considering for growing your bankroll.

Definition of Futures Betting

In sports, a futures bet is a long-term wager on the outcome of a season or special event. Most of the time you’ll find the odds on futures listed before a season begins. For instance, you can bet on who is going to win the World Series almost as soon as the previous Fall Classic ends, you can bet who is going to win next year’s college football national title moments after the BCS is finished, and you can bet on the following Super Bowl champion as soon as the timer reaches zero on this year’s big game. You can also bet on the NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, the Kentucky Derby, PGA Majors, and just about anything else that the books think will draw bettors’ interest. Futures bets aren’t limited to teams either, as you can also place wagers on individual player accomplishments. Some sportsbooks offer these wagers only before the season begins, while others have them listed all season long, up until the season is almost complete.

What factors should you consider in futures betting?

Of course when making futures bets you have to handicap the teams and put a number down relating to what you think each team’s chances are to win whatever event it is you are wagering on. Now that you have your predicted percenatages it’s time to look at these four factors to see if there is enough value to make your prediction a wager.

1. Time Value of Money

Some people think that you just look for value and if you think you have spotted a positive expectation you should pounce on it. However, with futures betting you also have to consider the time value of money. This means how long is part of your bankroll going to be tied up in the wager. If you are betting on an outcome that won’t be decided until eight months from now, you are going to need a higher return than a game that will be played tonight. How much do you make each year from gambling? Let’s just use an example of 10%. If the result is eight months away, that means you need 8/12 (months in a year) * 10%, or a 6.66% expected return. So this means you have to look for a little bit more value with futures wagers than you do with your daily bets. It also means that you need a big return. Is it worth betting $10 to win $20 for the Yankees to win the World Series? I think it’s more worth it to bet $10 on a team like the Devil Rays at 50/1 when you can turn that $10 into $500.

2. Shop Around

Different sportsbooks are going to have widely different odds available on futures bets. The reason is that they know the sharps aren’t going to kill them with these bets because professionals do not want to have their money tied up for that long. This means that books will intentionally set more attractive odds in order to increase their handle, and also to entice new visitors to deposit in their book in the hopes they will lose over the course of the season. We always recommend shopping around before making your bets, but with futures it can be even more beneficial.

3. Know Your Sports

If you are looking for a long shot, then you have to love betting on teams to win the Final Four, World Series, or the Super Bowl. The reason is that the playoff system is set up for upsets. You aren’t going to see the best teams finish the year as the champion every year like you are in say, professional tennis. Likewise, I have found the NBA and college football to be more reliable. In those two sports I tend to focus more on the favorites than I do long shots.

You also have to factor in more variables with futures. Injuries play a big role in who is going to win in the NFL. In 2008, the Patriots were the overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl, but Tom Brady goes down in Week 1 and they do not even make the playoffs. Devastating to anyone who took the Patriots to win it all. If a team loses a star pitcher in baseball, that is really going to put a hamper on their chances of winning as well.

4. Fun Factor

You should also factor in fun with futures bets. If you do not have a very large bankroll and do not like to wager a lot on individual games, then futures bets can give you the most bang for your entertainment buck. Notice I said entertainment, because they might not be the smartest bets for professional or serious gamblers, putting $10 on your teams win total to go over can give you a reason to root for them game after game, and will save you some money than if you bet $10 individually on each game and only hitting around 50%.

To make a long story short, futures can give you a cheap rooting interest covering the long term, but not the best tool for increasing your bankroll.

Sports Betting: Setting Realistic Expectations

Ryan Moss — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 13:00:01 +0000

You see handicappers cropping up all over the Internet claiming they hit 75 or 80% of their games. These guys are not handicappers, they are salesmen and what they have done is ingrained it in the minds of novice sports bettors that you have to hit that high of a percentage to make good money wagering on sports. They have created a total misconception of what it takes to be successful in this business. Many gamblers are now thinking that winning less then 70-75% of your wagers is worthless and that is a complete fallacy. Now most sports bettors have unrealistic expectations and feel that if they don’t hit at an ungodly percentage, that they are failing at sports betting and it’s simply not true.

True professionals look to hit 58-60% of their wagers over the course of the long haul. And anyone who tells you that you can’t make a lot of money hitting at that clip is not telling the truth. I have studied winning percentages over the course of my career and have found it to be true that hitting 60% is not only profitable, but it can lead you to mountains of money. Take Billy Walters for example, the most successful sports gambler of all time, he has openly expressed that his goal is to hit 60% throughout the course of any given season. If you manage your money correctly 6 out of 10 just keeps on compounding and compounding into ridiculous profits.

By using an economic principal, the time value of money, I have found that if you wager 5% of bankroll on one game a day and hit 60%, you could be multi-millionaire. However, if you continue to hit at that clip, you will eventually have your action limited by sports books throughout the world, so it’s not a totally realistic expectation. However, the proof is in the pudding. Hitting 60% of your games can lead to mountains of cash.

There are simply too many human elements to ever win at the rates that some scamdicappers claim. Remember you are betting on human beings, not robots. If every game went the way it is supposed to go, everyone would win 100% of the time. Lower your expectations and focus on hitting 60% and you will be a huge success in the sports betting world.

We have a lot more sports betting information for you on this site, so check out the links below and become a better sports gambler.

Flat Betting v. Rating System

Jack Jones — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:03:17 +0000

I have been encouraging people who are new to the site to send in their questions on sports betting and while I am answering each one personally I decided to take some of the more popular inquiries and turn them into articles for everyone to read. Remember that if you have any questions or comments on this article or handicapping in general, you can reply in the commenting section below or shoot me an email via the contact us page.

Since I am currenlty on such a great run in basketball, winning 10 straight free picks and going on a 12-1 run with basketball BEST BETS the subject I want to bring up today is unit size. The last thing I want anyone to do is to jump on board at this point and double down there bankroll simply because we are on such a great run. That’s a sure fire way to going broke and losing your bankroll. So what should you do?

Flat Betting

I believe that 75% of the gamblers out there should use flat betting. That means they should ignore star ratings and play every game the same, and by same I mean put a number in your head at the beginning of the season and stick with it. Why is this good for most bettors out there? Too often I find players putting a low rating on a play simply because they want to have action and don’t see any real advantage. They are just betting to bet which will lead to losing in the long run. If a player goes on tilt, then you will definitely see him making a case for a higher rating on plays that don’t deserve it. Why? Because they are down and have a serious case of wanting their money back.

Another reason for recreational bettors to use flat betting is the amount of work that goes into finding the percentage edge. It’s a lot easier for a player to handicap a game and say that there is an edge, but it takes a lot more work to determine what that edge is. A good practice would be to set your own lines on the games before looking at the books. If you see a game is two points off it’s worth a play, but five points off might be a BEST BET (or you missed something important.)

Rating System

Personally I use the star rating with 15* and 20* meaning 3% and 4% of my bankroll. Very rarely will I release a 25* that would translate into 5% of my bankroll on the play. This works because I’m disciplined and have been doing this long enough to know I am patient enough to ride out the cold streaks without pressing.

Why is the rating system better? The best analogy I can think of is card counting in blackjack. If you know the cards are in your favor you should bet more of your stack on each hand than if you know the deck is full of small cards, which would favor the dealer. This makes sense right? Well it’s the same for sports betting. If I think a game is more in my favor, I bet slightly more on it than other games.

I do like what Ryan Moss had to say in his money management article though about how he plays all bets the same. This is because he is only betting on top plays or BEST BETS. If that is your strategy then I would also recommend flat betting. However, there are going to be times when you see an exception, and while those cares are rare those are the games that you really want to load up on!

Baskeball Betting Tips: Rebounding

Ryan Moss — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 19:00:15 +0000

When handicapping basketball, you must realize that basketball is a game of opportunities. Teams trade off possessions throughout the course of the game. The key to winning is maximizing the opportunities and limiting the opposition from capitalizing on theirs. The best way for a team to do this is by rebounding the ball. Defensively, you have up to 35 seconds in college basketball to defend a team from putting points on the board. Ideally you want to limit them to no more than 35 seconds for a chance at scoring. Therefore by defending well and rebounding the ball, you limit second chance points. You do your job on a particular possession and take away more chances for the other team to score. I can’t think of anything more demoralizing then doing a great job defensively only to give up a cheap basket on an offensive rebound.

Teams that rebound on both sides of the floor are going to be successful because you only get so many chances at scoring. Offensive rebounds are golden for the team you are betting on. It extends the game in their favor because they receive an extra 35 seconds to score again. As stated earlier, the defense is forced to reset and defend again after doing their job which is eliminating the ball from going through the hoop. Offensive rebounds often come underneath the hoop which can lead for big men to put up an easy lay up for two points.

Offensive rebounding maximizes a possession and gives you more opportunities at scoring which increases your chances at covering the spread. Let’s face it, you need as many points as you can get to cover a spread. Defensively, by eliminating second chances, you give your team a better opportunity to win because your defense isn’t forced to exert the energy necessary to be successful.

When handicapping, I always look at the team’s rebounding for and against. I like to be on the team that can crash the glass but I also like to dig deeper and find who has the advantage on the offensive glass. It is a crucial statistic that can’t be overlooked. Generally teams that have a distinct advantage on the boards, wins the game and covers the spread. All four final four teams last year were superior rebounding teams and to me it wasn’t just a coincidence. Covering a spread is all about maximizing opportunities and minimizing scoring chances for the opposition. Bet teams that are successful at rebounding the ball.

You owe it to yourself this basketball betting season to put yourself in the best possible position to make money. If you are looking to beat the NBA odds or college basketball odds we can help you with our expert basketball picks.

Sports Betting Money Management: Getting Started

Ryan Moss — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:38:45 +0000

The first step for any sports bettor is to look at wagering as an investment, not a gamble. To the pros, wagering on sports is no different then the stock market. It is the process of investing money based on research and hard work. Thus, you must make a decision of how much money you are willing to invest. This should be the amount of money that you are willing to lose and money that you can afford to lose. Sports betting can be very volatile so you absolutely cannot be betting money that is used to pay your daily, weekly, and monthly bills. Never, ever make a wager with money that you absolutely need financially.

The next step is finding the right amount of the betting bankroll that you have set aside to wager on one particular game. Experts have been debating this question for years but in my experience, most pros bet between 1 and 5 percent of their betting bankrolls and I firmly believe in this strategy as well. You should never bet more than 5% of bankroll on one particular game. Now that we have set our parameters for bankroll management, we have to find the correct percentage for you as a sports bettor to wager on the outcome of one game. This is where it gets tricky.

I personally am a quality over quantity gambler, meaning I only like to bet a very small amount of games. I generally bet one game a day. Sometimes I will bet two and other days, I will pass. For me, it makes sense to wager 5% of my bankroll on each play I am betting on since I am only betting the absolute strongest plays on the board each day. If you are going to be what’s known as a volume bettor, betting anywhere from 5 to 10 games a day, you should bet less. Pros that are betting volume generally bet 1 or 2 percent of their bankrolls on each selection they make. Now if you fall in the middle, betting between 2 and 5 games a day, I recommend betting 3% of your bankroll.

All of the above guidelines are based on the premise of being a flat bettor, meaning you bet the same amount on each game. I am a firm believer in flat betting but many professional handicappers rate their plays from weakest to strongest. If you decide to do this, you should still stick to betting between 1 and 5% of your bankroll on any given game, however with this style you must deviate how much to bet on a game based on its rating or strength. Therefore, your strongest games should be 5% and your weakest selections should be 1%. Most handicappers use the star system: 1*, 2*, 3*, etc. For each star that a handicapper places on a game is a percentage you should wager. If you use a handicapper who has a larger range then 5*, then your parameters have to be set up a little differently. But always stick between 1 and 5%. This style of betting will give you the best chance at long term financial success and make it possible weather the storms of inevitable losing streaks.

We have a lot more sports betting information for you on this site, so check out the links below and become a better sports gambler.

College Basketball Handicapping

Jack Jones — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:25:13 +0000

College basketball handicapping can be a time consuming process. There are a lot of possible games each day and to go over every single one of them can take hours. If you want to rely on an expert then the NCAA basketball picks provided by our experts will give you a solid shot at beating the college basketball odds. If you think you can handicap the games on your own then we want to make sure you have a complete list of resources so you can profit with your NCAA basketball betting. This isn’t a complete list of the sites we look at each day, but it should give you a pretty good head start.

Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings – A power ranking system used for predictive purposes to show how strong a team is independent of emotional factors or injuries. It might seem complicated at first but you can quickly get the idea.
Jeff Sagarin Power Rankings – The popular Sagarin rankings, personally I use the predictor numbers rather than the ratings.
Hoops Index – Simple power rankings that updates automatically and gives you what they expect the spread to be.
Nolan Power Rankings – Warren Nolan gives his power index and strength of schedule rankings.
Entroy System Predictions – Easy to use prediction system that gives you who is going to win and by how many according to their rankings.
College Hoops Net - Some interesting stories and notes to keep you up to date on what’s happening around the country.
Covers NCAA BB Matchups – A great place to get trends and matchup informatoin on all of the day’s games.
Dolphin Predictions – scroll to the bottom to enter the teams you are looking at.
GoldSheet Historical Data – Logs and Ratings going back to 1995 on teh point spreads and scores of all teams.
Logical Approach – Has power ratins, performance index, home court values, and more.
Fox Sports Head-to-Head – Compare the two teams you are looking at side by side for a variety of different categories.
NCAA Division I Sites – Want to check out the latest news on a school? Where better to go than the university site.
Sports Terminal – check line moves, news, and previews all in one place.
Team Rankings – Use the predictive model to set your factors and come up with a prediction on who is going to win and cover.
Bracket Board - – I use this when tournament time gets closer to see who is fighting for their lives and who thinks they are comfortably in.
Vegas Insider CBB Matchups - Can give you a general overview of the teams playing each night.