2011 Central Florida Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The UCF Knights are coming off one of their most successful seasons in school history. Central Florida posted an 11-3 record overall, won Conference USA’s East division with a 7-1 mark, and went on to beat SMU 17-7 in the title game. The CUSA champs wouldn’t stop there as they beat Georgia 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl, pulling off one of the biggest upsets in the postseason. That win over the Bulldogs showed that they could play with anyone, and really put UCF on the map in terms of recruiting going forward.

Head coach George O’Leary enters his 8th year at Central Florida. He has done a tremendous job of turning this program around in his stint here. O’Leary has his hands full with only 10 returning starters this season, the second-fewest in the conference. You can’t ever count out this team, and there is still plenty of talent here for the Knights to post a third straight winning season. Here is a look at their offense and defense, along with my prediction on where UCF will finish in the CUSA East standings.

Offense:

Offense has been a problem for UCF in the past, but it wasn’t last season. The Knights rolled up 32.1 points and 374 total yards/game in 2010. They return six starters on this side of the ball, including their top playmakers in the backfield. Sophomore QB Jeff Godfrey grew up in a big way in his freshman season, throwing for 2,159 yards and 13 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. He also finished third on the team in rushing (566 yards, 10 TD) and is one of the best dual threat QB’s in the country. Godrey was named the CUSA Freshman Player of the Year for his efforts last season. He is primed to have an even bigger sophomore campaign and an excellent career here when it’s all said and done.

Hands down, the Knights have the most talented group of running backs in the entire conference heading into 2011. They bring back three backs that would all likely start on any other team in the league. Junior Latavious Murray is the best of the bunch after finishing second on the team with 637 yards on 5.7/carry and 11 touchdowns last season. He’ll get the first crack at starting this fall. Junior Brynn Harvey returns after taking a medical redshirt last year. He rushed for 1,628 yards in 2008 and ‘09 combined. 2010 leading rusher Ronnie Weaver (890 yards, 4.8/carry, 11 TD) is actually being listed as their No. 3 back on the depth chart. That’s how talented this group is, so look for them to eclipse the 188 rushing yards/game and 4.4/carry they averaged last season.

The biggest question mark on this team comes at wide receiver. The Knights lose their top three pass-catchers from a year ago in Brian Watters, Jamar Newsome and Kamar Aiken. They do bring back their No. 4 and No. 5 guys in senior AJ Guyton and junior Quincy McDuffie, respectively. Guyton finished with 28 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, while McDuffie caught 13 balls for 144 yards and 2 scores. Junior Brendan Kelly fills in for the departed Ricky Kay (10 catches, 116 yards, 2 TD) at HB.

The UCF offensive line held up very well last season. They paved the way to 188 rushing yards/game while allowing only 20 sacks. This year they lose LT Abre Leggins (11 starts last year) and first-team All-CUSA RT Jah Reid, who was drafted in the third round by the Baltimore Ravens. This is still a very experienced unit even with the loss of two starters and their top lineman. The Knights bring back four O-linemen who have each made at least 12 career starts, and all four made seven or more starts last year. They have combined for 87 career starts, meaning this unit should be just as strong as the 2010 version.

Defense:

Defense has been O’Leary’s specialty since coming over from Georgia Tech. He loses defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable, who left for Wisconsin in the offseason. Replacing him will be John Skladany, who was the DC here in 2007 and has held the same position at four other schools. He’ll be in charge of a stop unit that allowed only 17.1 points and 315 total yards/game last season. The problem is that he doesn’t have much experience to work with as only four starters return on this side of the ball. The Knights lose seven of their top 10 tacklers from last season, but there is still enough talent here to field a solid unit.

The Knights were stingy against the run last year, yielding only 108 yards/game and 3.4/carry on the ground. The defensive line was a big reason for that success, but they lose three starters up front, including first-team All-CUSA DE Bruce Miller (8.5 sacks last year). They do bring back Senior DE Darius Nall (8.5 sacks), who tied Miller for the team lead in QB takedowns. Also back is sophomore DT Victory Gray (33 tackles, 7 for loss). O’Leary has brought in one of the top JUCO’s in DE Toby Jackson as well as another JUCO in DT Jose Jose, who are both expected to start right away. Junior DE Troy Davis (5.5 sacks last year) rounds out the starting rotation up front.

UCF loses their #2 and #4 tacklers at linebacker in Derrick Hallman and Lawrence Young, respectively. They bring back their #3 tackler in senior MLB Josh Linam (78 tackls, 9 for loss) as their lone returning starter at linebacker. O’Leary has brought in two very highly touted JUCO’s in SLB Ray Shipman and WLB Ray Cottman. Both were in for the spring, and Shipman is a great story after playing 68 basketball games at Florida, but he hasn’t played football since his freshman year of high school. True freshman Leilon Willingham and converted RB Jonathan Davis are both highly skilled players, and they add depth at LB to help make up for so much experience lost.

Central Florida gave up just 207 passing yards/game on 54.3% completions last year. Their secondary is the strength of the defense heading into 2011 with a pair of first-team All-CUSA selections from 2010 returning. Junior CB Josh Robinson (59 tackles, 13 pass break-ups, 2 INT) and junior FS Kemal Ishmail (#1 tackler, 93 stops, 7 passes defensed) both come back. Junior CB AJ Bouye (8 passes defensed) made two starts last year and is ready for a full-time role. Redshirt freshman SS Clayton Geathers will be the only starter in the secondary with no previous starting experience.

Conference USA Prediction: 2nd Place East Division – While the schedule couldn’t set up much better for Southern Miss this season, it couldn’t set up much worse for UCF. They draw SMU and Tulsa out of the West division, while also having to play both Southern Miss and East Carolina on the road in back-to-back weeks. Don’t expect them to match last year’s win total of 11, but don’t count this team out, either. O’Leary gets the most out of his players, and even though they have little experience returning, there is still more than enough talent in the cupboard to make a run at the East division title for a second straight season.

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