Chicago Cubs 2010 MLB Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

On a bright note, the Chicago Cubs did finish with a winning record for a third straight season last year, going 83-78. It was the first time a Cubs’ team has done that since the early 1970’s. But the curse is still there, and it has now been more than 100 years since this team has won a World Series. Chicago had several big names suffer dips in production last year. The Cubs scored 148 less runs in 2009 than they did the previous season, and Milton Bradley was a big reason why. He got a three-year $30 million contract, and abruptly imploded. Bradley was a clubhouse distraction, and he was traded to Seattle in the offseason in a bad contract exchange for SP Carlos Silva. The Rickett family bought the Cubs for $854 million in the offseason, and a change in ownership could be just what the doctor ordered for this franchise. Still, Chicago lost the likes of Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Jake Fox and Bradley in the offseason, and they did nothing to replace these guys. They’ll be relying heavily on their veterans to step up and to stay healthy for a full season. There is still plenty of talent left in the cupboard for the Cubs to compete at a high level, but the window is closing. Baseball lines are set for this squad, showing the Cubs projected win total in 2010 at 83.5 .

Pitching:

The Cubs’ starting staff was not the problem last year, posting a 3.71 ERA with 94 quality starts, ranking second in the majors in the latter category. But Carlos Zambrano was a problem as he spent two stints on the DL, and won just 9 games. Zambrano did manage a 9-7 record with a 3.77 ERA, but his time on the injury list really hurt Chicago’s chances of being competitive in the NL Central. Ted Lilly was superb last year with a 12-9 record and 3.10 ERA, though he needed arthroscopic surgery in November and will need to return to form. Ryan Dempster wasn’t what he was in 2008, but he still went 11-9 with a 3.65 ERA for a respectable 2009 campaign. Randy Wells was a pleasant surprise, going 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA last season. The Cubs cannot expect him to keep up those numbers, but anything close would certainly be welcomed. Tom Gorzellany is in line to get the No. 5 spot in the rotation, though he has been a disappointment the last 2 years after going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 2007 with Pittsburgh. Carlos Marmol enters the season as the closer. Marmol remains a strikeout machine, though his rise in walks last season is a major concern. Marmol averaged 7.91 BB/9 innings last year, but he certainly has the “stuff” to be an everyday closer. Angel Guzman is the Cubs’ primary setup man this season after going 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA last year. John Grabow can also handle these duties after coming over via trade from Pittsburgh last season, going 3-0 with a 3.36 ERA. Chicago has the makings of one of the best staffs in the majors provided everyone stays healthy.

Hitting:

Geovany Soto lost 50 pounds in the offseason, mainly because the Cubs’ catcher plummeted last season after a brilliant 2008. In ‘08 Soto hit .285 with 23 HR’s and 86 RBI’s, but in ‘09 he came back with a .218 average and just 11 HR’s and 47 RBI’s. 1B Derek Lee single-handedly carried this team in the second half last year, hitting .306 with 35 HR’s and 111 RBI’s in 2009. He is the one steady player in this line-up that brings it every day and avoids injury. Mike Fontenot enters the spring as the Cubs’ starting 2B, but after hitting .305 in 2008 he also suffered in ‘09, hitting just .236. SS Ryan Theriot is a steady producer, hitting between .267 and .307 while scoring at least 80 Runs and stealing at least 21 bases for 3 straight seasons. It is most important for 3B Aramis Ramirez to stay healthy, because this is a completely different team when he is in the line-up. He missed nearly 2 months of action last season due to a dislocated left shoulder. Ramirez hit .310 with 26 HR’s and 101 RBI’s in 2007 and .289 with 27 HR’s and 111 RBI’s in 2008. The Cubs desperately need LFAlfonso Soriano to return to his 2007 form after receiving season-ending surgery on his knee at the end of last year. Soriano hit .299 with 33 HR’s, 97 Runs scored and 19 SB’s in ‘07. He was good in ‘08 while hitting .280 with 29 HR’s and 75 RBI’s, but his production took a big hit in ‘09 when he hit just .241 with 20 HR’s and 55 RBI’s. Soriano and Ramirez are the wild cards on this team because both are fully capable of putting up huge numbers when healthy. The CF job goes to Marlon Byrd who was a nice addition in the offseason after coming over from Texas. He hit at least .283 in his last 3 seasons with the Rangers, and smacked 20 HR’s with 89 RBI’s in 2009. Kosuke Fukudome has been a big disappointment since his first few months in a Cubs’ uniform in 2008. He’ll get the RF job and Chicago is certainly hoping he can live up to his potential this season.

Jack’s Prediction: 2nd in the NL Central and OVER 83.5 Wins – Hard to see the Cubs overtaking the Cardinals in the NL Central this season, but they certainly have the talent to do it. Still, there are so many question marks on this team. When healthy, the Cubs can beat anyone, but after injuries to Zambrano, Ramirez and Soriano there is a lot up in the air. Byrd was a nice addition in the outfield, and the Cubs still have one of the best pitching staffs in the game, but they just don’t stack up with what the Cardinals have going on in St. Louis. There is some nice value here with the OVER 83.5 wins as Chicago has finished with at least 83 wins for three straight seasons, and have won the NL Central two of the past three years. So I’ll take the OVER and predict them to finish second in the NL Central, possibly earning at Wild Card bid.

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