2012 Chicago Cubs Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Chicago Cubs went just 71-91 for a second consecutive fifth place finish in the NL Central. The disappointing finish prompted the team to go out and sign Theo Epstein as the team’s new president. As the general manager of the Red Sox, Epstein brought a World Series to Boston after an 86-year drought. Cubs fans are counting on him to put an end to their losing ways, as they haven’t won a World Series in 103 years. Epstein decided to part ways with manager Mike Quade and bring in Dale Sveum, who has been the Brewers hitting coach the last three seasons. It’s unlikely the Cubs will make a push for a World Series in the first year of the Epstein era, but the loveable losers appear to be headed in the right direction. Here’s a look at the Cubs projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation for the 2012 season.
Projected Lineup
Geovany Soto (Catcher) – Soto has failed to live up to the high expectations he set when he won the Rookie of the Year in 2008. That year Soto hit .285 with 23 home runs and 86 RBI. In 2011 he hit just .228 with 17 home runs and 54 RBI. His numbers have to improve if the Cubs are going to contend in the Central.
Bryan LaHair (First Base) – LaHair has spent most of his career in the minor leagues, but figures to get a shot to showcase his talents. The 29-year-old hit a minor league-best 38 home runs last year, and the Cubs are counting on him to translate those power numbers into the big leagues. Chicago also added power-hitting prospect Anthony Rizzo from San Diego, who will likely get the call if LaHair struggles.
Darwin Barney (Second Base) – As a rookie, Barney showed some promise, hitting .276 with 23 doubles and 43 RBI. The only other option here is veteran Jeff Baker, so it looks like Barney will get a chance to solidify his case as the future at second base.
Starlin Castro (Shortstop) – Castro is without question the most promising player on the Cubs roster to date. It’s hard to believe Castro will turn just 22 in March. He backed up his stellar rookie season by hitting .307 with 10 home runs, 36 doubles, nine triples, and 66 RBI. As he continues to mature his power numbers should only get better.
Ian Stewart (Third Base) -The Cubs lost long-time third baseman Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers in free agency, and as a result they went out and signed Stewart to take over at the hot corner. Stewart is coming off an awful 2011 season where he hist just .156 in 48 games before being demoted, but he has produced in the past. He hit 43 home runs and drove in 131 runs in 2009 and 2010.
Alfonso Soriano (Left Field) – A lot of people expected the Cubs to part ways with Soriano this offseason, but as of now he is the opening day left fielder. Soriano still hits for decent power, he belted 26 home runs and drove in 88 runs last year, but struggles to make contact on a consistent basis. Over the last three seasons his average is a measly .248.
Marlon Byrd (Center Field) – Byrd is coming off a down year in 2011. He missed a good chunk of the season after getting hit in the face by a pitch, which resulted in him hitting just .276 with nine home runs and 35 RBI. The 2010 All-Star outfielder appears to be on the decline, but likely still has a couple solid seasons left in the tank.
David DeJesus (Right Field) – The Cubs are hoping they get the DeJesus that hit .300 in his final three seasons with the Royals (2008-10), instead of the DeJesus that hit just .240 in 131 games with the A’s last season. Will likely get a shot at opening the season as the leadoff hitter, but doesn’t exactly have the speed teams look for at the top.
Projected Rotation
Ryan Dempster (RHP) -Dempster is coming off his worst season as a starter with the Cubs. He went just 10-14 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In his previous three seasons he went 43-28 with no season resulting in an ERA above 3.85. I expect Dempster to bounce back in 2012, but I don’t necessarily consider him an ace at this point in his career.
Matt Garza (RHP) – There have been rumors flying around that the Cubs should trade Garza for prospects, but it doesn’t seem like they are ready to let go. He went just 10-10 in his first season with Chicago, but posted a respectable 3.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 197 strikeouts. Regardless if he is a Cub or not, I think Garza is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game today.
Randy Wells (RHP) -Wells has his work cut out for him if he wants to stay in the rotation. He finished strong with a 4-0 August, but was just 7-6 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. This may be his last chance to prove he is a worthy starter in the big leagues.
Paul Maholm (LHP) – Maholm’s 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP indicate he pitched a lot better than his 6-14 record would indicate, but I wouldn’t buy into a strong 2012 season just yet. Maholm posted a 3.71 ERA and1.28 WHIP in 2008, but backed that up with a 4.44 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2009 and 5.10 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 2010.
Chris Volstad (RHP)/Travis Wood (LHP) – The Cubs acquired Volstad in a trade for Carlos Zambrano and Wood in a trade for Sean Marshall. Both are right in the thick of things in the race for the final three spots in the rotation. Neither put up great numbers last year, but both are just 25-years-old with room to improve.
Projected Closer
Carlos Marmol (RHP) – Marmol has saved 72 games for the Cubs the past two seasons, but he can be as inconsistent at they come. His 10 blown saves and 4.01 ERA have some wondering if he will be able to keep his job. He has the stuff to be the best closer in the game, but must show he can bring it every time he takes the mound.
| 2012 Chicago Cubs Odds | |
| World Series | +4000 |
| NL Pennant | +2200 |
| NL Central | +1800 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O73.5 (-105) |
| U73.5 (-125) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Alfonso Soriano – 22.5
Geovanny Soto – 17.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Starlin Castro – .300
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Ryan Dempster – 10.5
Matt Garza – 12
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Carlos Marmol – 33.5
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I know a lot of people will just laugh if they read this. But I’m writing this because I’ve had such a gut feeling leading up to this season that the Cubs will shock the baseball world! They, against all odds, will overcome and the North Side will witness a World Series. I’m not going to say they’ll win..but Wrigley Field will host the world series in 2012. You’re all going to say that I’m just a typical Cubs fan for thinking this…but let me tell you. I predicted the NY Giants winning the 2011 Super Bowl..was I lucky? Maybe, but great things are going to happen this season and I’m going to take the heat from a ton of fans..but it’s alright. We will all soon seen!!! Thanks for your time