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Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Picks & Predictions

Written September 18, 2008 by Jack Jones

The Kansas City Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards has made his decision to go with Tyler Thigpen as his starting quarterback on Sunday when the team heads to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This sure makes things interesting as Falcons rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, now is the more experienced signal caller after just two games in the league than his opponent. That is one of the reasons the odds makers at Sportsbook.com have listed Atlanta as a 6 point favorite over the Chiefs with a total set at 36.5.

The decision to go with Thigpen comes after starter Brodie Croyle went down in Week 1 with a shoulder injury and Damon Huard was knocked out last week with head trauma. Now the 24-year-old out of Coastal Carolina will get his first nod of his career at the Georgia Dome. Last week was the first game he really saw any extended period of action, and he didn’t look all that great until leading the Chiefs on a drive late in the 4th to put Kansas City down by eight. Unfortunately, that was as close as the team was going to get as Oakland ended up winning 23-7 to give the Chiefs their 11th straight loss, the worst losing streak in the storied franchise’s history.

It wasn’t like the team had high expectations of returning to the glory days of off high-power offense like they had under Dick Vermeil, but this year has gone a lot worse than expected. The running game has been non-existent behind a thin and inexperienced offensive line that has also allowed nine sacks. Larry Johnson is supposed to be a Pro Bowl caliber running back though, and his 96 total rushing yards on 2.8 ypc aren’t going to cut it. Rookie Jamaal Charles hasn’t been a whole lot better, picking up 35 yards on just eight totes, but one of the major problems is that the team has gotten so far behind games early they have had to turn to the air. Wideout Dwayne Bowe and tight end Tony Gonzalez both have 11 catches and a touchdown, but somebody else is going to have to step up as defenders can just key in on those two guys.

While this team was supposed to be poor offensively, the defense has some veterans, but haven’t been able to do much of anything so far. Last week was fairly embarrassing when Oakland ran for 300 yards and the team has now given up six runs of 20+ yards in two games. The defensive tackles, which includes their first-round draft pick Glenn Dorsey, need to penetrate into the backfield while more big plays are needed out of the linebackers. The secondary is already inexperienced, but now with Patrick Surtain’s shoulder injury the Chiefs will be fielding two rookies at cornerback. It’s a good thing they are going against Ryan. If you think the Chiefs can cover the +6 spread, bet the game at BetUS and get up to 135% in signup bonuses.

After an impressive first week against the Detroit Lions, Ryan came back to reality last week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers defense was a little bit tougher, and it showed when Ryan went just 13-for-33 and 158 yards, being picked off twice, sacked four times, and failing to lead Atlanta on a single drive ending in a touchdown. Granted though this was the first road start of his career and the team knew there were going to be some bumps in the road. If Atlanta is going to win this game they are going to have to depend on the running game.

In Week 1 that running attack looked potent with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood combining for more than 300 yards, but last week those same two backs weren’t nearly as productive and it led to a loss. With just 60 yards on 20 carries, the Falcons had to try to throw the ball to move it down field, and that was a lot to ask a rookie to do against a highly regarded Bucs defense.

Defensively the Falcons haven’t been great, but they haven’t really been bad either. In Week 1 the problems came against the Lions passing game, but last week it was the running game that faultered against Tampa Bay. Earnest Graham was able to run for 116 yards on only 15 attempts so Johnson has to be hoping this is finally the game he gets going and starts earning that big payday he received from the Chiefs a year ago. The pass defense has gotten a lot of help from defensive end John Abraham, who has four sacks in two games to lead the NFL. The Falcons need to apply pressure since their secondary is fairly young and inexperienced outside of Lawyer Milloy, who was arrested on a DUI charge earlier in the week. If you think Atlanta matchups up well against the Chiefs, bet the Falcons -6 at Sportsbook.com and get a 100% bonus on your first winning wager.

NFL score predictions on this game: Falcons 20, Chiefs 14

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