2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

This New Year’s Eve the No. 25 Auburn Tigers will take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN. This is quite a change of scenery for both teams. Last year Auburn was getting ready to take on Oregon in the BCS National Championship Game, while Virginia’s season was well in the books after finishing just 4-8 in the first season under Mike London.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Auburn favored by 3-points over Virginia with the total set at 49 points.

Virginia:

I thought the Cavaliers would be a better team in the second year under London, but I had no idea it would be this big of a turnaround. Virginia finished the year 8-4 overall and were second in the ACC Coastal Division with a 5-3 conference mark. Had Virginia won their season finale against in state rival Virginia Tech, they would have played in the ACC Championship Game. They ended up losing to the Hokies 38-0, but it didn’t take away from what this team accomplished. The Cavaliers most notable wins came at home against Georgia Tech 24-12 and at Florida State 14-13.

Offensively the Cavaliers had their struggles putting points on the board, as they averaged just 23.2 ppg, but a stingy defense allowed them to rally from behind or protect the lead. Virginia finished with the 63rd ranked passing attack (231.5 ypg) and the 53rd ranked rushing attack (165.3 ypg).

Virginia had to be happy with the play of sophomore quarterback Michael Rocco, who completed 60% of his attempts for 2,359 yards with 11 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Not great numbers, but pretty solid considering he had never started a collegiate game before this season. Rocco’s favorite target is senior wide out Kris Burd, who finished with 60 catches for 810 yards.

The Cavaliers have options in the running game between junior Perry Jones and redshirt freshman Kevin Parks. Jones led the team with 883 yards on 176 carries to go with five touchdowns, while Jones had 661 yards and a team-best eight scores. True freshman Clifton Richardson figures to get a few carries as well. Richardson chipped in 333 yards and two scores on just 66 attempts.

Virginia should be able to have plenty of success against Auburn’s defense. The Tigers finished 92nd against the run (194.8 ypg) and 43rd against the pass (211.0 ypg). This Auburn defense wasn’t just bad against the SEC, they gave up an average of 429 ypg in four non-conference games.

Auburn:

The Tigers ended up finishing the season 7-5 overall and 4-4 in the SEC, but they didn’t exactly put together too many convincing wins. Auburn could have very easily lost three maybe four more games this season. It really was an impressive job by Gene Chizik and his staff. Auburn had just six returning starters coming into the season.

Auburn’s biggest struggle has been finding a replacement for Heisman Trophy Winner Cam Newton. The Tigers started the season with junior Barrett Trotter, but he was later replaced by sophomore Clint Moseley. The buzz around Auburn is that true freshman Kiehl Frazier might get a chance to showcase his talents in the bowl game.

Regardless of who plays at quarterback, the big concern for Auburn is how the offense will manage without sophomore running back Michael Dyer, who was suspended for violating team rules. Dyer had rushed for 1,1242 yards and 10 touchdowns. Junior backup Onterio McCalebb will like get the majority of the snaps. McCalebb was second on the team with 532 yards and four touchdowns.

It will be interesting to see if Auburn’s offense can move the ball without Dyer. Their passing game is suspect at best, and they are playing a pretty solid Virginia defense. The Cavaliers are 31st against the run (128.3 ypg) and 48th against the pass (214.8 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Auburn is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. ACC.

Predicted Score: Auburn 24, Virgina 23

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win the rest of the college football bowl season. Also, check out our 2011 college football bowl predictions for a preview of every bowl game.

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