2010 Cincinnati Reds Predictions


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The main goal for most teams in the league is to find young, talented players that produce more than what they are getting paid for. The Reds have plenty of those kind of players, a la Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. They also have a young nucleus of starting pitchers with plenty of talent at small-market prices in Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman and Johnny Cueto. Now it’s up to manager Dusty Baker to get this young nucleus of players to stay healthy and turn this production into more wins. Then there’s Drew Stubbs, who came on and helped the Reds finish off the season strong after a stretch which saw Cincinnati lose 45 of 68 games. Cincinnati managed a 78-84 record in 2010, and their strong finish has Reds’ fans optimistic heading into 2010. Still, this team has not had a winning season since 2000 and they have not been to the postseason since 1995. MLB odds show us that BetUS thinks Cincinnati is in for another losing season, listing the Reds projected win total at 79.5.

Pitching:

After a dominant 2007 campaign in which No. 1 starter Aaron Harang went 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA, he has faltered the past two seasons due to nagging injuries. Harang went 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA in ‘08 and 6-14 with a 4.21 ERA in ‘09. He is their No. 1 guy heading into Opening Day, and the Reds need his best effort this season to help lead a young, but talented starting rotation. No. 2 goes to veteran Bronson Arroyo who resurrected his career by going 15-13 with a 3.84 ERA last season. No. 3 Johnny Cueto is a young strikeout pitcher who went 11-11 with a 4.41 ERA last season. He has a big upside. No. 4 Homer Bailey finally started to show his potential at points last season, going 8-5 with a 4.53 ERA. No. 5 will be Aroldis Chapman, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the majors. He has a 100 MPH fastball and excellent command, and his delivery seems effortless. Expect big things from him in his rookie season after coming over from Cuba. The bullpen was a bright spot for the Reds last season as their relievers finished with a 3.56 ERA. Francisco Cordero continues getting it done in the closer’s role. He has finished with at least 34 saves for 3 straight seasons, and put up a 2.16 ERA and 39 saves in ‘09 with Cincinnati. Nick Masset was a valuable set-up man last year, going 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA while eating up 76 innings. Danny Herrera is their go-to lefty out of the bullpen, finishing 4-4 with a 3.06 ERA in just over 61 innings of work in ‘09.

Hitting:

The Reds hit .249 as a team last season, finishing dead last in the National League in that category. Their .318 on-base percentage ranked 28th in the majors as well. Catcher Ramon Hernandez has been consistent the last 3 years, but consistently below-average isn’t going to cut it. Hernandez has hit .257 or .258 for three straight seasons, and his power numbers were down last year as he belted just 5 HR’s. He had surgery on his left knee mid-season last year and needs a healthy return. 1B Joey Votto has impressed ever since he came in the league. He hit .321 in 2007, and followed that up by hitting .297 in ‘08 and .322 in ‘09 with 49 HR’s and 168 RBI’s combined the past two years. He is the face of this franchise. 2B Brandon Phillips is a steady producer, hitting at least 20 HR’s with at least 78 RBI’s, 80 Runs and 23 SB’s for three straight seasons. 3B Scott Rolen proved he’s still got some gas left in the tank, hitting .305 with 11 HR’s, 67 RBI’s and 76 Runs scored in his time with Toronto and Cincinnati last season. He adds veteran leadership that this team desperately needs. SS Orlando Cabrera keeps getting bounced around the league, but he continues finding himself in the postseason almost everywhere he goes. Cabrera has hit at least .281 and has scored at least 83 Runs for 4 straight seasons in the big leagues, and he is exactly what this team needs at the top of the line-up. The outfield features Jay Bruce in right, Drew Stubbs in center and Johnny Gomes in left. In just 180 at-bats at the end of last season, Stubbs hit .267 with 8 HR’s, 17 RBI’s, 27 Runs and 10 SB’s. Stretch those numbers out for a full season, and the Reds have an excellent power-speed combo in Stubbs out in center field. Bruce hit 21 HR’s in his rookie season in 2008 and followed that up with 22 HR’s in his sophomore campaign in just 345 at-bats last year. He had a fracture in his right wrist and spent time on the DL, but he’s supposed to be fully healthy in 2010. Gomes belted 20 HR’s in just 285 at-bats last season.

Jack’s Prediction: 3rd in the NL Central and OVER 79.5 Wins – As you can see, this line-up is not lacking in the power category, but they could use a much better on-base approach this season if they are to compete in this division. They have 4 starters that hit at least 20 HR’s last season, and another in Stubbs who is certainly a 20-20 guy waiting to happen. Cabrera gives them an on-base guy at the top of the line-up that they lacked last year, and he has postseason experience which should come in handy as he leads this young group. The starting rotation is a concern, but it also has to the potential to be solid with Chapman emerging on the scene and Cueto and Bailey each improving last year. If you want a sleeper team to come out of the Central, then this would certainly be my pick. But I can’t see them finishing higher than 3rd in this division as they are still depending on too many youngsters to step up and make the difference. A winning season is certainly within their reach, though.

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Comments

One Response to “2010 Cincinnati Reds Predictions”

  1. seth on August 30th, 2010 12:51 PM

    swing and miss on 2010 reds prediction

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