2012 Cincinnati Reds Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Cincinnati Reds are looking to take back the top spot in the NL Central after a disappointing 79-83 finish to the 2011 season. Last year the Reds didn’t make a lot of moves after winning the division in 2010, but general manager Walt Jocketty believes he has added in the right pieces for 2012. Cincinnati went out and traded for a proven starter in Mat Latos, a reliable set-up man in Sean Marshall, and a shutdown closer in Ryan Madson. With Albert Pujols leaving St Louis and Prince Fielder not returning to Milwaukee, Cincinnati believes they are the team to beat in the Central. Let’s take a look at the Reds projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Ryan Hanigan (Catcher) – With the decision to not bring back veteran Ramon Hernandez, Hanigan will likely open the 2012 season as the everyday catcher. Hanigan isn’t a real threat offensively, he hit just .267 with six home runs and 31 RBI in 266 at-bats last year. Don’t be surprised if youngster Devin Mesoraco steals a lot of playing time from Hanigan this season.
Joey Votto (First Base) – With Pujols and Fielder both jumping to the AL, Votto is the best first basemen the NL has to offer. Votto didn’t live up to his MVP numbers from 2010, but still hit .309 with 29 home runs and 103 RBI. As good as Votto has been so far in his career, I still think his best years are ahead of him.
Brandon Phillips (Second Base) – Phillips emerged into the class of elite second basemen with yet another outstanding season in 2011. His career-high .300 batting average topped all NL second basemen, plus he hit 18 home runs with 82 RBI. When you factor in how great he is defensively, three-time Gold Glove winner, you can see why he is considered one of the best at his position.
Zack Cozart (Shortstop) -Cincinnati got a glimpse of Cozart’s potential last year. Before his season was limited to just 11 games because of a elbow injury, Cozart showcased his talents by hitting .324 with two home runs and an impressive seven-game hitting streak in his first seven games.
Scott Rolen (Third Base) – The Reds are hoping they can get one more season out of the soon to be 37-year-old Rolen. After a remarkable 2010 season, where he hit .285 with 20 home runs and 83 RBI, Rolen was limited to just 65 games because of injuries. As a result he hit just .242 with five homers and 36 RBI.
Chris Heisey (Left Field) – Heisey is expected to get a chance to start everyday in left field after a couple of seasons used primarily as a backup. He has hit just .254 in 480 career at-bats, but he has some power worth keeping an eye on. After hitting just eight home runs in 201 at-bats in 2010, Heisey belted 18 home runs in just 279 at-bats in 2011.
Drew Stubbs (Center Field) -There’s no denying the fact that Stubbs has the potential to be a great player, but he has to start making more contact. His 40 stolen bases and 15 home runs were overshadowed by the fact that he struck out a franchise-record 205 times last season.
Jay Bruce (Right Field) – Bruce is coming off an All-Star season in 2011, but he has to figure out how to be more consistent. He finished up the year with an impressive 32 home runs and 97 RBI, but 12 of his home runs and 33 of his RBI came in the month of May. He hit just .228 in April and .217 in June, with just six home runs in those two months combined.
Projected Rotation
Johnny Cueto (RHP) -Cueto is coming off arguably his best season yet. His 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP were both career-best. His 9-5 record is a bit misleading, five of his no-decisions were a result of a blown save.
Mat Latos (RHP) – Latos figures to give the Reds a potent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. The 24-year-old is coming off a 9-14 season with the Padres, but his 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP tell you he pitched a lot better than his record would indicate. The one thing to keep in mind, Latos goes from pitcher-friendly Petco Park to hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Bronson Arroyo (RHP) -Arroyo battled mono most of last season, and it seemed to really effect his performance. He still went out and started 32 games for the Reds, but he finished the year just 9-12 with a horrible 5.07 ERA. Look for the veteran to bounce back with numbers more similar to his 3.88 ERA and 17-wins of 2010.
Mike Leake (RHP) – The 24-year-old led the Reds with 12 wins in 2011 in just his second season in the big leagues. Leake lowered his ERA from 4.23 to 3.86 and WHIP from 1.50 to 1.17. If he can just match his numbers from last year, he will give the Reds a legit starter at the back of their rotation.
Homer Bailey (RHP) -Bailey has shown flashes in his career, but he needs to start producing if he wants to stay in the rotation. He went 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in a career-high 22 starts last year, but could end up getting bumped from the rotation if the Reds decide to make Aroldis Chapman a starter this season.
Projected Closer
Ryan Madson (RHP) – Francisco Cordero saved 37 games for the Reds last year, but his best years are behind him. Cincinnati is excited about having Madson close the 9th, as he converted 32 of 34 save opportunities with the Phillies last year. With the Reds offense and the new look of their starting staff, Madson could save upwards of 40+ games this season.
| 2012 Cincinnati Reds Odds | |
| World Series | +2000 |
| NL Pennant | +900 |
| NL Central | +140 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O87.5 (-115) |
| U87.5 (-115) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Joey Votto – 30.5
Jay Bruce – 31.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Joey Votto – .312
Brandon Phillips – .275
Drew Stubs – .250
Over/Under Total Steals in the 2012 Regular Season
Drew Stubs – 32.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Mat Latos – 14.5
Johnny Cueto – 13
Bronson Arroyo – 12
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