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Cincinnati at South Florida Spread

Written October 15, 2009 by Doc Sports

Doc’s Sports has long been known as one of the best football handicappers around as he has been helping clients win for almost 40 years. If you want some college football picks from an expert to help you cash in on your football betting this weekend, give Doc a try. Here is his preview on the Cincinnati at South Florida game Thursday night.

The number of unbeaten teams in college football, currently at nine, will for sure dwindle by at least one on Thursday when Big East contenders Cincinnati and South Florida square off in Tampa. The Bearcats are currently 3.5-point favorites when looking at the live college football odds. Check out BetUS for a $500 match bonus offered exclusively to our readers!

It’s a little hard to figure out what to make of either of these teams yet. Neither one has played a team currently ranked, although both had pretty formidable non-conference wins: Cincinnati at Oregon State and South Florida at Florida State. But the rest of the Bulls’ non-conference schedule was a joke: Wofford, at Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern. The Bearcats have already beaten Rutgers and also beat a decent Fresno State team – they look more legit.

Thursday’s game marks the second year in a row these two have met in an ESPN game at night but the first time both teams have been ranked when playing. South Florida is 2-4 all-time against Cincinnati, with both wins taking place in Tampa. But the Bulls have dropped three straight in this series, including 24-10 last season.

USF might have an ace-in-the-hole this year in defensive coordinator Joe Tresey. Before coming to South Florida this offseason, he spent the previous three years as Bearcats coach Brian Kelly’s defensive coordinator, the past two at Cincinnati (but Kelly dismissed him after last season). Tresey’s Bulls unit has forced 11 turnovers in the past two games and forced 16 this season overall, just one light of the defense’s total in 2008, and is fifth nationally in scoring defense (again, consider the weak schedule this far).

Tresey spent some time this week talking to the South Florida offensive coaches and players, which is not the norm.

“He spent a good half hour with us talking about each individual (on the Cincinnati defense),” Bulls offensive coordinator Mike Canales said to reporters. “It was invaluable for us in how we plan on attacking them.”

Certainly Tresey knows Kelly’s offense better than probably anyone but Kelly, but the Cincinnati coach likely knows Tresey’s defensive traits just as well – so maybe it’s a wash. And the Cincinnati defense has been virtually as good so far this year, ranking second in the Big East in scoring defense (13.8) even though that unit began the season with 10 new starters.

The Bearcat offense is ran by underdog candidate Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard. Cincinnati enters with the No. 4 ranked scoring offense (42.0 ppg) in the land and has put up at least 21 first-half points in all five games this season. Pike has thrown a touchdown pass in 15 straight starts and leads the conference in total offense (306.8 ypg). Gilyard has caught at least one TD pass in seven consecutive games overall and has 38 catches for 517 yards and seven TDs in 2009.

USF has won five straight games against teams rated in the AP Top 25 and two in a row at home against Top 10 teams. The Bulls also are 5-0 ATS in their past five as a dog.

And take the under on this one if you go by recent history. Cincinnati’s past eight Thursday games have gone “under,” as have seven of USF’s past eight when it’s a dog.

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