College Bowl Handicapping – Date
Written May 21, 2008 by Jack Jones
Our college football bowl handicapping series continues with a look at the timing of the games. We like to break down the bowl season into pre-New Year’s Day games and after. This gives you two different classes since all of the strong teams and games play after January 1st. You have to take two different approaches to these two sections, and we are here to help you figure things out.
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Pre-New Year’s Day
The minor bowl games prior to New Year’s Day have generally gone towards the underdogs and the overs. Underdogs of more than a touchdown are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games, so this trend has some validity to back it up. The early games are a little sloppier, with teams trying to cut loose, and the results normally show in turnovers, blown assignments, and big plays on special teams.
The early bowls often have large BCS schools with poor records taking on strong teams from the smaller conferences. These defenses haven’t seen the unusual offensive sets that these teams run, and added to that is how the offenses want to prove they can score against big-time defenses. The smaller schools are more likely to throw out everything they have in the playbook and take a lot of chances. Add that to how the smaller schools do not have the talent on defense to match up with the more talented larger conference schools and you have the grounds for a lot of overs. Bowl games before December 26th are 28-15-2 OVER during the past seven years. Odds makers have started to inflate these lines, so don’t take this as a hard and fast rule, but just another tip in the arsenal.
New Year’s Day & After
After New Year’s Day comes the top teams have been practicing for the past three or four weeks and are set on the defensive end for whatever their opponents have to show. These teams don’t play as sloppy as the smaller schools and most of the top teams have solid defenses to begin with. All January bowl games with a total of 48 points or higher are on a 36-16 run for the under bettor.
You’ll also see favorites covering more often in the later games than early on. The better team comes in focuses and sharp, unlike in the earlier games. However, remember not to take this into account for the two smaller bowl leading up to the National Championship game, just the traditional January bowls.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- 2008 College Football Bowl Betting Tips
- College Bowl Betting Line Moves
- College Football Bowl Odds & Betting Lines
- 2008 BCS Bowl Games & Schedule
- College Football Bowl Predictions: Week 15
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