College Bowl Handicapping

Written by Jack Jones

We have this old guide laying around for handicapping the college bowl games and wanted to get it posted for everyone to take advantage of. Remember that even if you had a great college football betting season the bowl season is a completely different animal, and we want to make sure you are as prepared as possible.

MOTIVATION

The most important thing in our minds is to figure out which teams really want to be involved in the bowl game that they are in. There are some teams that wanted to be in a better bowl, and it’s hard for teams to find the inspiration needed to play in a minor bowl game when they had their hopes on a bigger match-up.

Underdogs also do a great job against teams that got jumped in the polls or BCS ratings at the end of the year. These favorites are normally feeling down or sorry for themselves and have a tendency to be beaten outirght as more than a touchdown favorite, so think of a big payday on the money line!

The last team to look for is the one that wanted to be in a better bowl at the beginning of the year but was hampered by injuries, adversity, or close losses. This is a team you want to ride because they look at the game as a chance to get something out of their lost season, to put the seniors out as winners, and to build for the next year.

COACHING

This is pretty basic since it’s an important factor in regular season handicapping as well. The added deal here is that the coach has to prepare after an extended layoff, add some new plays to the mix, and maybe face an offense or defense that the team is not used to seeing.

A bigger factor is the coaching changes that takes place during the layoff and not only with the head coaches but with top assistants. Keep tabs on who is going to remain with the team and who is bolting off for greener pastures. Sometimes teams will be motivated to send their guy out with a win or they’ll roll over due to worrying about the new coach coming in and what their role might be.

INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS

The layoff can be critical, and some teams will get as little as two weeks while other teams have as many as six between their last regular season game and their bowl game. During this time injuries will heal, new injuries will emerge, players will be suspended, and so on. You have to know who is going to be in the lineup and whether there is a reliable backup to that player on the roster.

PROGRAM

Take not of the school’s performance during the season, noting the good and the bad. A good spot is to take an underdog from a power conference before New Year’s, especially if the team feels like they are getting slighted. There are teams that get some bad breaks and lose some close games, finding themselves an underdog to a team that they are more talented than. Look for strength of schedule, conference power ratings, and how the team has done on an individual level.

The timing of the games is also important. We like to break down the bowl season into pre-New Year’s Day games and after. This gives you two different classes since all of the strong teams and games play after January 1st. You have to take two different approaches to these two sections, and we are here to help you figure things out.

Pre-New Year’s Day

The minor bowl games prior to New Year’s Day have generally gone towards the underdogs and the overs. Underdogs of more than a touchdown are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games, so this trend has some validity to back it up. The early games are a little sloppier, with teams trying to cut loose, and the results normally show in turnovers, blown assignments, and big plays on special teams.

The early bowls often have large BCS schools with poor records taking on strong teams from the smaller conferences. These defenses haven’t seen the unusual offensive sets that these teams run, and added to that is how the offenses want to prove they can score against big-time defenses. The smaller schools are more likely to throw out everything they have in the playbook and take a lot of chances. Add that to how the smaller schools do not have the talent on defense to match up with the more talented larger conference schools and you have the grounds for a lot of overs. Bowl games before December 26th are 28-15-2 OVER during the past seven years. Odds makers have started to inflate these lines, so don’t take this as a hard and fast rule, but just another tip in the arsenal.

New Year’s Day & After

After New Year’s Day comes the top teams have been practicing for the past three or four weeks and are set on the defensive end for whatever their opponents have to show. These teams don’t play as sloppy as the smaller schools and most of the top teams have solid defenses to begin with. All January bowl games with a total of 48 points or higher are on a 36-16 run for the under bettor.

You’ll also see favorites covering more often in the later games than early on. The better team comes in focuses and sharp, unlike in the earlier games. However, remember not to take this into account for the two smaller bowl leading up to the National Championship game, just the traditional January bowls.

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