2011-2012 College Bowl Predictions


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Here you’ll find my predictions on every bowl game this season.  The final score predictions are based heavily on the current odds, but I have selected my winning pick for each matchup.  Betting lines are subject to change, so be sure to check the most up-to-date numbers with our live college football odds.  You can also click on each bowl name to view a more detailed preview of the matchup (updated often)!

Date Bowl Matchup Odds
Dec. 17 Gildan New Mexico Wyoming vs. Temple Temple -6.5, O/U 47
These teams have equal records, but Temple has clearly had a better season. The Owls rushing attack should have a lot of success against the Wyoming run defense. Temple 31, Wyoming 14
Dec. 17 Famous Idaho Potato Ohio vs. Utah State Utah State -3, O/U 57.5
Utah State had better numbers offensively than Ohio during the regular season, but the Aggies played a softer schedule and their defense struggled down the stretch. This line is pretty spot-on, but the Bobcats could easily win outright. Ohio 28, Utah State 27
Dec. 17 R & L Carriers New Orleans San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette SD State -5, O/U 58.5
With the way that these two teams finished the regular season (San Diego State with two wins, LA-Lafayette with two losses), it’s not hard to see why the Aztecs are favored. Lafayette’s defense simply isn’t up to snuff. San Diego State 35, LA-Lafayette 21
Dec. 20 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Florida International vs. Marshall Florida International -4.5, O/U 49
International actually holds statistically edges in most major categories. They are an up-and-coming program, but Marshall played the tougher schedule and ended up with a better record. It should be close, but Marshall has the edge against the spread. Florida International 24, Marshall 21
Dec. 21 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia TCU vs. Louisiana Tech TCU -11, O/U 55.5
TCU is obviously the better team, but they dropped several spots in the bowl rankings after a suprise loss to Colorado State in their second-to-last game of the regular season. The biggest question is whether or not they show up to play in a game when they probably feel they deserve better. TCU 42, Louisiana Tech 17
Dec. 22 MAACO Las Vegas Boise State vs. Arizona State Boise State -14, O/U 66
Arizona State averages over 30 points per game and Boise averages over 40 per game, so expect a lot of points, but a lot of of people overlook how good Boise’s defense has been. Boise State 42, Arizona State 24
Dec. 24 Sheraton Hawaii Southern Miss vs. Nevada Southern Miss -6, O/U 61
Southern Miss is finally getting some of the credit it deserves after beating up on a much-heralded Houston team. Nevada can score points, but they’ve had some unimpressive showings late in the season, including losing 5 of their last 6 games. Southern Miss 38, Nevada 24
Dec. 26 AdvoCare V100 Independence North Carolina vs. Missouri Missouri -4, O/U 53
Pretty even matchup here across the board, but Missouri gets the edge with the line because the Big 12 is considered stronger than the ACC. Missouri 28, North Carolina 24
Dec. 27 Little Caesars Pizza Purdue vs. Western Michigan Purdue -2.5, O/U 60
Here you have a case of both teams probably feeling lucky to be in this game, which usually makes for a hard-fought contest. Western Michigan has better numbers, but played decidedly weaker competition. Purdue 31, Western Michigan 28
Dec. 27 Belk NC State vs. Louisville NC State -2.5, O/U 45.5
NC State finished the season on a down note, getting blown out by Florida State. They’ve also won just one game away from home this season. Louisville ended the season with two-straight wins, plus got four of their seven wins during the regular season away from home. Louisville 24, NC State 17
Dec. 28 Military Toledo vs. Air Force Toledo -3, O/U 70.5
Both of these teams can score and both teams have excellent running attacks. The key will be which team can stop the others’ rushing game. Toledo has been better at this throughout the regular season. Toledo 38, Air Force 27
Dec. 28 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Cal vs. Texas Texas -3, O/U 47.5
Cal finished the season strong, winning three of their last four and covering four-straight spreads. Meanwhile, Texas lost and failed to cover in three of their last four. This matchup pits strength against strength: Cal’s offense vs Texas’s defense. It’s hard to see Cal have the same success against the Longhorns as they did against the Pac-12. Texas 27, Cal 21
Dec. 29 Champs Sports Florida State vs. Notre Dame Florida State -3, O/U 47
This is one of the best non-BCS matchups of the bowl season. These teams are evenly-matched, but Florida State’s defense should make the difference. Florida State 27, Notre Dame 20
Dec. 29 Valero Alamo Baylor vs. Washington Baylor -9, O/U 78.5
I have to imagine Baylor feels slighted after finishing the season with five-straight wins that included victories over Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma. Will they take their frustrations out on Washington or come out flat? My guess is the former. Baylor 49, Washington 28
Dec. 30 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces BYU vs. Tulsa BYU -2.5, O/U 55.5
Tulsa’s four losses came to some of the best teams in the nation: Houston, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. BYU did play Texas and TCU (both losses), but they did have one of the softest schedules in the nation. I like Tulsa in an upset. Tulsa 34, BYU 21
Dec. 30 New Era Pinstripe Iowa State vs. Rutgers Rutgers -2, O/U 45
Iowa State has been one of the feel-good stories of the season after their improbable upset of then-No. 2 Oklahoma State, while Rutgers has flown a bit under the radar, despite some impressive in-conference wins (Cincinnati, South Florida). Rutgers 24, Iowa State 21
Dec. 30 Franklin Am. Mortgage Music City Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Mississippi State -6.5, O/U 48
Mississippi State had a mostly disappointing season, while Wake Forest came of out nowhere (they haven’t been bowl-eligible for four years and won just three games last season) to qualify for the postseason. The Bulldogs are still the better team, but it might be closer than you think. Mississippi State 27, Wake Forest 23
Dec. 30 Insight Iowa vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma -14, O/U 58
Both teams started off with promising regular seasons, but cooled down the stretch. Iowa is outmatched in nearly every phase of the game. It’s hard not to see the Sooners rolling. Oklahoma 42, Iowa 20
Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care of Texas Northwestern vs. Texas A&M Texas A&M -10, O/U 65
Texas A&M has to be the best 6-6 team in the nation, but they have to be disappointed in how their season turned out. Northwestern did upset Nebraska this year, but it’s hard to see another win for them here. Texas A&M 45, Northwestern 24
Dec. 31 Hyundai Sun Georgia Tech vs. Utah Georgia Tech -3.5, O/U 50.5
Utah struggled a bit in their first year in the Pac-12, but still racked up enough non-conference wins to finish a respectable 7-5. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech had some impressive games, especially offensively, but came up short in their key conference matchups. Tech looks like the clear winner, but don’t be surprised if the Utes come out hungry. Georgia Tech 31, Utah 28
Dec. 31 AutoZone Liberty Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -2.5, O/U 48.5
Cincinnati holds just about every statistical edge here, which is why they are favored, but the Bearcats played in a so-so Big East Conference this year. Vandy only managed 6 wins, but played in the SEC and hung tough against teams like Arkansas and Georgia. This should be a fun one. Cincinnati 27, Vanderbilt 24
Dec. 31 Kraft Fight Hunger Illinois vs. UCLA Illinois -2, O/U 47
Interesting that Illinois is favored here considering they lost six-straight games to finish the regular season, then again UCLA lost a couple of blowouts to end their season and many don’t think they deserve to be in this game. UCLA 24, Illinois 23
Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Virginia vs. Auburn Auburn -1.5, O/U 49
Virginia might be the biggest surprise team of the year in my book, but it’s hard to see them sticking with Auburn with some of the teams the Cavs have lost to this season. Auburn 28, Virginia 21
Jan. 2 TicketCity Penn State vs. Houston Houston -5, O/U 57.5
This line is a little surprising. Yes, Houston was dominant through most of the regular season, but were exposed against Southern Miss in their finale. Penn State’s defense can be dominant, but the turmoil of the program in general does bring into question how well they can perform. Penn State 28, Houston 24
Jan. 2 Outback Michigan State vs. Georgia Georgia -3.5, O/U 50.5
Georgia got hot late, but came up way short in the SEC Championship against LSU. Michigan State might be suffering a similar hangover after a near-miss in the Big Ten Championship versus Wisconsin. All things considered, Georgia looks like the smart play here. Georgia 31, Michigan State 21
Jan. 2 Capital One Nebraska vs. South Carolina South Carolina -2.5, O/U 48
South Carolina responded surprisingly well to losing the best running back in the nation (Marcus Lattimore), winning three of their last four and six of their last seven. Nebraska ended on a rollercoaster, trading wins and losses in their last five games. I’d expect a run-heavy game and some solid defense, which should lead to a low-scoring contest. South Carolina 24, Nebraska 21
Jan. 2 Taxslayer.com Gator Ohio State vs. Florida Florida -2, O/U 44
Two former powers trying to end the season on a high note. Florida failed to cover in their last 8 games, leading me to believe they have been overrated for much of the season. Ohio State covered in 4 of their last 8 games, but lost three straight to end their season. Florida 21, Ohio State 20
Jan. 2 Rose Wisconsin vs. Oregon Oregon -6, O/U 72
A lot of points expected in this one, and it shouldn’t disappoint. Wisconsin has the edge defensively, but Oregon can score at will. Oregon 38, Wisconsin 35
Jan. 2 Tostitos Fiesta Oklahoma State vs. Stanford Oklahoma State -3.5, O/U 74
Oklahoma gets the edge simply because their strength of schedule is better. Stanford can definitely pull the upset, but Oklahoma State wants to prove they had a legitimate claim to play in for the championship. Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 35
Jan. 3 Allstate Sugar Michigan vs. Virginia Tech Michigan -2.5, O/U 51
Both teams are really lucky to be in this game based on VA Tech’s blowout loss to Clemson (who they lost to twice) and Michigan’s two losses. Both teams have come out flat on occasion, but I think we’ll get a good effort out of both squads. Michigan 31, Virginia Tech 27
Jan. 4 Discover Orange Clemson vs. West Virginia Clemson -3.5, O/U 60
This game promises to have a lot of offense. On paper, these teams are almost identical, so I’ll take the points. Clemson 30, West Virginia 28
Jan. 6 AT&T Cotton Classic Kansas State vs. Arkansas Arkansas -8, O/U 63
Arkansas only lost to the two teams in the BCS Championship game, while K State only lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. I can see this being a much better game than it’s being billed as. Arkansas still wins, but it’s not a blowout. Arkansas 34, Kansas State 27
Jan. 7 BBVA Compass Pittsburgh vs. SMU Pittsburgh -5, O/U 49
A pair of inconsistent teams here. SMU really faded down the stretch run, while Pitt stepped up when it counted, beating Syracuse in their last regular season game to become bowl-eligible. Pitt 28, SMU 21
Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State Arkansas State -1.5, O/U 62.5
You might not know much about either team, but these are two of the best “mid-majors” in college football and both finished the season red hot. This one is almost too close to call in my opinion. Arkansas State 34, Northern Illinois 31
Jan. 9 Allstate BCS National Championship Game LSU vs. Alabama Alabama -1, O/U 39.5
I think that LSU’s tougher schedule, plus the fact that they played and won the SEC Championship, makes them more prepared than Alabama. LSU is the best team I’ve seen on the field this year and they should walk away with another win over the Tide. LSU 23, Alabama 21
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Comments

10 Responses to “2011-2012 College Bowl Predictions”

  1. kevin carey on December 16th, 2011 10:01 AM

    I agree with the majority of your picks except one major concern. Pittsburgh must wonder who or if anybody ifs going to lead them onto the field.

  2. Jack Jones on December 16th, 2011 10:56 AM

    I can agree with that, but this is really as much a play against SMU as it is a play on Pitt. The Mustang’s poor strength of schedule, coupled with the fact that they did not perform well to end the season makes me side with the Panthers in this situation.

  3. marty H on December 18th, 2011 7:47 PM

    picks are right on!! TCU and Boise St roll big and Rutgers wins hands down. Clemson wakes up and scores 45 to win by 18.

  4. bruin5 on December 23rd, 2011 11:36 AM

    Good pick that Ucla wins!!!!!!! but i think Ucla wins 24-14

  5. bruin5 on December 23rd, 2011 11:39 AM

    Good pick that Ucla wins!!!!!!! but i think Ucla wins 24-14. Go bruins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@!!!!!!!!!!!!

  6. buckeye121 on December 25th, 2011 12:31 PM

    i am takinig all your picks hope u know what your talking about

  7. Zoomie89 on December 27th, 2011 4:24 PM

    I like all your upset picks. But I think there will be WAY more even. Add Western Michigan, Utah, Cal and Wisco to the list. Thanks for the detailed analysis Jack!

  8. cottonpicker on January 2nd, 2012 9:22 AM

    motivation seems to win more often than potential talent…south carolina will shuck the huskers and clemson will fall to the mountaineers

  9. Sandi Martin on January 11th, 2012 10:54 AM

    You must have lost your mind on Jan 09….Alabama up by 21 points

  10. Jack Jones on January 11th, 2012 11:52 AM

    @Sandi Martin – Everyone is an expert after the game has been played! :)

    Seriously though, LSU looked terrible. Credit the Alabama defense and coaching. They were ready to play, LSU obviously didn’t know what hit them.

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