College Football Betting: Back or Fade – Week 8

Written October 16, 2008 by Evan Altemus

Now that we are in the middle of the college football season, almost every team has revealed their potential and how they will perform in certain situations. For example, from a college football point spreads perspective, some teams play much better as a large underdog than a favorite, expected to win. In addition, there are some teams that are disasters and unbackable no matter what the situation. Conversely a few teams are dangerous to bet against, regardless of how much they are favored by. This article is going to discuss which teams to back or fade given certain situations.

First, let’s take a look at some teams that the average bettor should look to wager on in the 2nd half of the season. Some keys to look for with these teams is do they have a capable enough of an offense to keep games close as a large underdog or blow teams out as a large favorite. Offense, specifically quarterback play, is the key with these teams. Penn State has been a point spread monster this season, as they have combined an explosive offense and physical defense to blowout their overmatched opponents. Look for that success to continue as they get deeper into conference play. Their offense is high powered enough to cover larger spreads, and their defense is able to shut down most opposing offenses. Next, let’s look at which teams are going to be fantastic wagers as underdogs. These teams should be taken as underdogs but not as favorites of more than 3-4 points, as they are able to keep games close when not much is expected of them. However, they fold when put in a position that they are expected to dominate their opponent. Baylor, Minnesota, Buffalo, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Pittsburgh, and Oregon State all fall into this category. For the most part, these squads are up-and-coming programs, which lack the experience or motivation to be premier teams, but they have the coaching and skill set to surprise large favorites. For example, Pittsburgh defeated South Florida as a 14 point underdog, Oregon State defeated USC as a 25 point underdog, and Mississippi defeated Florida as a 23 point underdog. These wins were not flukes, so don’t be surprised if any of the previous list of seven teams pulls off another outright upset this season. Now let’s shift our focus to teams that you should not have NCAA football picks on, regardless of the situation.

Teams in this category usually have either an awful defense and/or significant problems involving the program. These problems include a coach who is going to get fired, or a team that has given up on their coach. The point spreads released on these teams aren’t large enough to overcome potential blowouts. For example, Washington State and North Texas are some of the worst teams in college football right now. Things have been so bad for the Cougars that they have had tryouts on campus to fill positions on their team. As a result, Washington State has gone 0-6 against the spread and straight up to Division I opponents this season. North Texas, meanwhile, has the 4th worst defense in college football. They also have the worst scoring defense, giving up 53 points per game. Meanwhile, there are some teams to avoid backing because of coaching situations. Washington, Tennessee, and Clemson are all teams that come to mind. Tommy Bowden was just fired, and it is a huge question mark as to how the team will respond. Washington and Tennessee have been horrendous against the spread teams this season, and both head coaches will probably be fired at the end of the season.

To be successful at betting college football, the bettor must be aware of which teams to avoid going against and which teams to avoid betting on, no matter the spread. Overall, look to take advantage of quality underdogs, particularly if they are double digit dogs. In addition, stay away from programs that are in complete disarray, no matter how many points they get.

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