Colts Patriots Spread

Written by Jack Jones

When the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts get together, it’s usually one of the most anticipated games of the year. That’s certainly not the case this season as the Patriots are a massive favorite to beat the Colts Sunday. Indianapolis remains without Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning, taking away the excitement heading into this game. Despite not playing in the same division, the Colts and Patriots have squared off at least once per year dating back to 2003. That’s because both teams have been so successful over the last decade. New England won the most recent meeting 31-28 on November 21st last year despite giving up 467 total yards, including 396 passing and four touchdowns from Manning.

According to the latest NFL odds, New England is a 20-point favorite over Indianapolis with a total set of 47.5 points.

New England

The Patriots appear to be the strongest team in the AFC once again this season. New England (8-3, 4-1 home) leads the AFC East division by two games, but actually three considering they swept the season series with second-place New York. They are in a four-way tie for the best record in the AFC with the likes of Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston as well. The Patriots have won three straight in blowout fashion, outscoring their last three opponents a combined 109-39.

New England is coming off a 38-20 road victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Tom Brady was marvelous, completing 24 of 34 passes for 361 yards and three touchdowns. Wes Welker and Deion Branch each topped the 100-yard mark, combining for 14 receptions for 240 yards and two scores, both by Welker. BenJarvis Green-Ellis carried the load on the ground, rushing for 44 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles did manage 466 total yards, but a lot of that was in garbage time after trailing 31-13 early in the third quarter.

The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense (429.5 yards/game) and last in total defense (409.9 yards/game). Despite ranking so poorly on defense, they still only give up a respectable 20.3 points/game. If Aaron Rodgers wasn’t in the league, Brady would be the favorite to win the MVP for a second straight year. He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 3,627 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Welker is the NFL’s leading receiver with 82 grabs for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski has emerged as one of the game’s top tight ends, catching 60 balls for 864 yards and 11 scores.

Indianapolis

The Colts are off to their worst start since 1998. They opened 0-10 in Manning’s rookie season that year, but he was able to notch his first win in Week 12. Indianapolis (0-11, 0-6 away) wasn’t able to accomplish that same feat last week, falling yet again to the Carolina Panthers by a final of 27-19. This team is running out of winnable games, though they will get a rematch with Jacksonville at season’s end. Their other four opponents have a combined 30-14 record.

Indy had their chances against Carolina, but once again quarterback Curtis Painter could not deliver. He went 15 of 29 passing for 226 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Both of those picks came in the closing minutes as the Colts twice had a chance to send the game to overtime. They had the ball inside the Carolina 5 with about a minute to go, but Austin Collie couldn’t secure a pass from Painter, and it was tipped into the hands of Sherrod Martin to seal the victory for the Panthers. Reggie Wayne finally broke out, catching five balls for 122 yards including a spectacular 56-yard touchdown.

The Colts are a dreadful 30th in the NFL in total offense (280.0 yards/game). Their stop unit hasn’t been much better, ranking 29th in the league in total defense (389.3 yards/game). Painter has had plenty of chances to earn the starting quarterback job, but he’s simply not getting it done. The Colts have elected to start Dan Orlovsky against the Patriots. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 122 yards on the season. Also, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer has been fired. Though these moves may have been a few weeks too late, management had to do something to try to avoid a winless season.

Betting Trends

The Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, but 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, but only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

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