2012 BBVA Compass Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The Pittsburgh Panthers are set to take on the SMU Mustangs in the 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl. The game is scheduled for Saturday, January 7th at 1:00 ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN. This will be the Panthers fourth straight postseason appearance. Pittsburgh will be looking for their third straight bowl win, as they knocked off Kentucky (Compass Bowl) and North Carolina (Car Care Bowl) the previous two seasons. SMU is headed to their third straight bowl game. The Mustangs crushed Nevada 45-10 as a 12-point underdog two years ago, but lost outright as a seven-point favorite to Army last season.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Pittsburgh favored by 3-points over SMU with the total set at 47 points.

SMU:

The Mustangs opened the 2011-10 season with a blowout loss at Texas A&M, but they would win their next five games, including a 40-33 overtime win at TCU. However, SMU was unable to continue their winning ways. The Mustangs finished up just 2-4 over their final six games. The two wins came against Tulane and Rice, who combined to go 6-19.

SMU nearly went into the bowl game without head coach June Jones, who has done a remarkable job turning around the program. Jones was believed to be headed to Arizona State, but the deal never went through.

The Mustangs came into the season expecting big things out of junior quarterback Kyle Padron, after he threw for 3,828 yards and 31 touchdowns as a sophomore, but he didn’t even make it pas t the first game. Senior J.J. McDermott replaced Padron in the first game and never let go of the spot. McDermott finished with 3,182 yards, but had a horrible 16 interceptions to 16 touchdowns.

When McDermott drops back to pass, there’s a good chance its head in the direction of junior Darius Johnson or senior Cole Beasley. Johnson ended up with 72 catches for 998 yards and seven touchdowns, while Beasley hauled in 79 passes for 954 yards and two scores.

SMU might have to rely heavily on the passing attack against Pittsburgh. The Mustangs lost starting running back Zach Line for the season and will face a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd against the run (121.6 ypg) and 69th against the pass (233.3). Line rushed for 1,224 yards and 17 touchdowns in just 10 games.

Pittsburgh:

The Panthers will be headed to a second straight bowl game without a true head coach. Todd Graham abruptly left the team to take over the Arizona State job. The same job that Jones initially believed he was going to get. Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson will serve as the interim head coach for this game.

Pittsburgh came into the season with the expectations of winning the Big East, but inconsistent play kept them out of the picture. The Panthers ended up going 6-6 overall, but were just 4-3 in Big East play. Pittsburgh never won more or lost more than two games in a row all season. They did finish the season playing some of their best football, but its hard telling how they will respond without their head coach.

Offensively the Panthers suffered a huge loss when junior running back Ray Graham was lost for the season after just eight games. Graham still led the team with 958 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Senior Zach Brown finished second on the team with 336 yards and five scores, and will likely be the feature back against SMU.

If the running game struggles to get going, look for the offense to rely heavily on the arm of junior quarterback Tino Sunseri. The second-year starter threw for 2,433 yards, but he also had a bad TD/INT ration with 10 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Sunseri is going to need a big game out of wide outs Devin Street and Mike Shanahan. Street had a team-high 48 catches for 692 yards, while Shanahan hauled in 35 passes for 443 yards and a team-best four touchdowns. Whether or not Street will even be able to play is up in the air. The wide out is listed as questionable with a leg injury.

The SMU defense was at it’s worst against the pass. They finished 27th against the run (127.3 ypg), but were 60th against the pass (223.9 ypg).

Betting Trends:

SMU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win the rest of the college football bowl season. Also, check out our 2011 college football bowl predictions for a preview of every bowl game.

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