2011 Conference USA Football Predictions
Written by Jack Jones
The balance between the East and West divisions of Conference USA was pretty impressive heading into the 2010 season. They had split their games 20-20 and titles 2-2 over the previous four seasons since this conference went to two divisions. The East had the edge 10-8 last year, and also produced the best team in the UCF Knights as they beat the SMU Mustangs 17-7 in the title game. The Knights would go on to beat Georgia in the Liberty Bowl and finish #21 in the final polls, marking the first time that a current CUSA member has been ranked in the top 25 since Marshall did it back in 2002 when they were in the MAC.
Tulsa also finished #24 in the polls, giving this conference two teams inside the top 25. It’s loaded again with perhaps five teams that all have a shot at being ranked come season’s end. Houston, Tulsa, and SMU head the West division, while Southern Miss and UCF will battle it out for East bragging rights. All but one coach returns in 2011 as former Tulsa head man Todd Graham left to take the job at Pittsburgh. As a whole, Conference USA went 22-32 in non-conference games, had six wins vs. BCS teams, and went 2-4 in the bowls. With six bowl invites last year, its clearly a sign that this is one of the up-and-coming conferences in the country. Here are my predictions on how the East and West divisions will play out in 2011.
West Division
1. Houston Cougars – QB Case Keenum is returning for a 6th season after earning a medical redshirt last year. Due to his return, the Cougars are clearly the team to beat in the West division. They have only 12 starters back, but return their top three running backs and their top receiver. Keenum will have plenty of weapons to work with, and the defense should improve with their top five tacklers back from last season. Houston only lost to Tulsa by a field goal last year despite playing with a backup QB and committing five turnovers. They do get the Golden Hurricane on the road this season, but you don’t have to look back far with victories over Oklahoma State and Mississippi State in 2009 to see that Keenum is fully capable of taking his troops on the road to get a big win.
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane – With 18 starters back from a team that went 10-3 a year ago, Tulsa is going to be in the title hunt from the West. They lose only 13 lettermen, which is the second-fewest in the conference. The loss of head coach Todd Graham is going to be tough to overcome as new head man Bill Blankenship has no previous experience at the position. They also have to break in new offensive and defensive coordinators, meaning they might not be able to maximize the talent at hand. Tulsa has the talent to win the division, but without a proven leader I’m placing them second.
3. SMU Mustangs - The Mustangs were the surprise team of the conference last season, winning the West with a 6-2 mark in CUSA play. They should be a force again this season with 18 returning starters, tied with Tulsa for most in the conference. The one thing that’s holding me back from picking them to win it again is their ridiculous schedule. They must play West powers Houston and Tulsa on the road, while also drawing Southern Miss and UCF from the East. Essentially, they play the four best teams in the conference this year, and will be lucky to get through them with a 2-2 record. A team with two CUSA losses is not going to win the division again.
4. Rice Owls – The Owls come into the season very underrated, and if it weren’t for the quality of the teams I have picked ahead of them, I would have them finishing better in the final standings. Rice has 17 returning starters, and they lose only six players off their depth chart from the final week of last season. They were plagued by injuries last season with 35 starts lost due to injury. I expect them to stay healthy this year and challenge for a bowl bid with all of the talent they have returning.
5. Tulane Green Wave – The Green Wave have finished in the cellar of the West division in back-to-back seasons, but I’m calling for them to get out of the basement in 2011. That’s because they were much better than their record would indicate last year, and they return 14 starters. They lost to Marshall despite outgaining them by 139 yards, lost to Southern Miss when they held a 28-17 first down edge, and also had a FD edge against SMU but lost. Houston only outgained them by 18 yards in their setback against the Cougars as well. If they can get a few more breaks to go their way and cut down on the turnovers, the Green Wave have the talent to pull off a few upsets this year.
6. UTEP Miners – The Miners return the third-fewest starters in the conference with 11, so despite making a bowl game last year, this is a team that is going to be in rebuilding mode. They lose starting QB Trevor Vittatoe and must replace all five starters along the offensive line. Head coach Mike Price has brought in some quality JUCO’s to try to fill the void of losing 35.3% of their lettermen. The defense was atrocious last season, but they appear to have their best stop unit in at least five years this year. Unfortunately, in the tough West division, they are miles behind offensively compared to the other five teams I have ranked ahead of them.
East Division
1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles – Stats don’t win ball games, but nobody was better in CUSA last season than the Golden Eagles. They outgained opponents by 94.1 total yards/game and welcome back 14 starters in 2011. Not only do they have a ton of talent coming back, but they also get perhaps the best schedule in the entire conference. Southern Miss plays only two of the top five teams in CUSA, and they get those two in UCF and SMU at home. They don’t have to play neither Houston nor Tulsa from the West, meaning this is essentially a cake-walk schedule. As long as they can avoid the upsets that have haunted them in the past, Southern Miss should run away with the East.
2. UCF Knights - The defending CUSA champs went 11-3 last season, beat SMU in the title game, and went on to top Georgia in their bowl game to finish ranked #21 in the land. They only return 10 starters this season, which is the second-fewest in the conference. That being said, they have a proven QB under center and one of the top backfields on offense. Defensively, UCF was the best in the league last season and should be ranked right up there near the top again in 2011. What has me picking them second in this division is their schedule, which features SMU and Tulsa from the West, along with road games against East rivals Southern Miss and East Carolina.
3. UAB Blazers – With the way UAB played against a few SEC teams last season, it’s clear that this squad had a lot of potential. They missed 5 field goals that prevented them from beating Tennessee, and actually held a 24-23 lead over Mississippi State in the fourth quarter. They have 16 returning starters this year, and I like their chances to pull off a few upsets. The schedule will require that as they draw both Tulsa and Houston from the West. Their toughest games are at home though, making a couple upset bids much more possible.
4. East Carolina Pirates – Head coach Ruffin McNeill took ECU to a bowl game in his first year on the job. They did catch some breaks along the way and overcame a woeful defense, but they certainly earned it. Their team should be right on par with last season as they return 12 starters. The Pirates defense was the worst in the conference last season, surrendering 44 points per game. They must improve on this side of the ball or they’ll have no shot at winning the East despite having one of the top QB/WR combos in all of CUSA. What will help them prepare for conference play is a brutal non-conference schedule that includes South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina.
5. Marshall Thundering Herd – First-year head coach Doc Holliday got the most out of his team last season. The Thundering Herd put together a 5-7 season and nearly made a bowl game. They welcome back 14 starters, including nine on defense which will make their stop unit one of the best in the conference. Marshall will be tested with a very tough schedule that includes road games at Houston, Tulsa and UCF. With only five home games all season, it’s going to be tough to see the Herd finishing any higher in the East division despite having a stronger team.
6. Memphis Tigers – The Tigers were far and away the worst team in the conference last season. They were outgained by 149.5 yards/game and outscored by 22.8 points/contest. To make matters worse, they return the fewest starters (9) and lose the most lettermen (30) in all of CUSA. Despite such little experience returning, the Tigers will field a more talented, athletic team in the second season under head coach Larry Porter. He’ll get the most out of his guys, and Memphis has three winnable home games against the likes of Marshall, UAB and East Carolina to look forward to in 2011.
Conference USA Championship Game: Houston defeats Southern Miss
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