Connecticut at Cincinnati Line

Written by Steve Janus

The Cincinnati Bearcats are set to host the Connecticut Huskies in a game that will play a huge role in who wins the Big East this season. The Bearcats improved to 4-2 inside the conference with a 30-13 win over Syracuse. With a win over Connecticut they would finish the season tied with Louisville on top the conference at 5-2, but whether or not they earn the automatic BCS bid for winning the Big East will come down to Thursday’s game between South Florida and West Virginia. If West Virginia wins the Bearcats would end up losing a three-way tie to the Mountaineer because they are ranked higher in the BCS standings, but a West Virginia loss would allow them the opportunity to win the conference, as they hold the tie breaker over Louisville by beating them 25-16 earlier this season.

Taking a look at the week 14 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Cincinnati favored by 10-points over Connecticut with the total set at 49 points.

Connecticut:

The Huskies come into this game off a huge 40-22 win over Rutgers last week. Not only did that game knock Rutgers out of the Big East title picture, but it moved Connecticut within one-game of becoming bowl eligible at 5-6. While Connecticut won’t be playing for a chance to win the Big East, they are going to be laying everything on the line to extend their season.

When you look at the final of their game against the Scarlet Knights, you would expect to see some pretty big offensive numbers for a team that scored four touchdowns, but they finished the game with just 290 yards of total offense. The difference in that game was the play of their defense, who forced six turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown by Kendall Reyes.

Junior quarterback Johnny McEntee was just 10 of 16 for 90 yards with no touchdowns, but with the way the Huskies were running the ball he didn’t have to do much. Lyle McCombs led the way with 95 yards and two scores, Scott McCummings added 47 yards and two scores, and Jonathan Jean-Louis chipped in with 42 yards on just 10 attempts.

Connecticut’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in their last three games, and are going to need their defense to step up and make some big plays if they are going to win this game. They simply don’t have enough offense to win otherwise, especially when you consider they are going up against a Cincinnati defense that is 10th in the country against the run, allowing just 99.4 ypg.

Cincinnati:

If it wasn’t for a season-ending ankle injury to starting quarterback Zach Collaros, the Bearcats could be coming into this game with a chance to win this game outright. Collaros and the Bearcats were 3-0 in conference play before he went down in a 21-24 loss to West Virginia. Cincinnati would go on to get crushed at Rutgers 3-20 the following week, a game you have to feel like Collaros would have made a difference.

After struggling in relief of Collaros against West Virginia and in his first start against Rutgers, backup quarterback Munchie Legaux stepped up with a big time performance in a must win game. Legaux went 13 of 22 for just 169 yards, but threw two touchdowns with no interceptions.

Legaux also got plenty of help from the ground attack, including his backup Jordan Luallen. Isaiah Pead led the way with 80 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts, while Luallen added 77 yards on just eight attempts. Pead wasn’t just a factor running the ball, he also had a team-high nine catches for 112 yards and another score.

In order to beat the Huskies the Bearcats might have to rely even more on Legaux’s arm than they did last week. Connecticut is 3rd in the country against the run (84.2 ypg), but are a miserable 114th against the pass (286.8). Whether or not Legaux can take advantage of a weak secondary will likely decide if Cincinnati can do enough offensively to win this game.

Betting Trends:

Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football.

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