Connecticut at Pittsburgh Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Wednesday the Pittsburgh Panthers will host the Connecticut Huskies in a crucial Big East matchup. Both teams come into the game 3-4 overall and 1-1 in conference play. The Panthers have been a huge disappointment in 2011. They lost 14-26 at home to Utah in their last game, giving them four losses in their last five overall. The Huskies haven’t played great, but no one really expected them to compete this year. Connecticut will be riding a wave of confidence after upsetting South Florida 16-10. However, Pittsburgh beat that same South Florida team 44-17 just a few weeks back.
Taking a look at the week 9 spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Panthers favored by 10-points over the Huskies.
Connecticut Huskies:
The Huskies aren’t getting a lot of respect against the Panthers, but this is a game they are more than capable of winning. They upset Pittsburgh last year at home 28-30. They held the Pittsburgh rushing attack to just 143 yards, 32 yards below their season average.
The defense is going to have to be even better this time around if they are going to win on the road. Connecticut hasn’t been able to much offensively. In their win over South Florida they were outgained 339 to 253 in total yards, but forced the Bulls into four turnovers, including a late fumble that was returned for the game winning touchdown.
The Huskies rushed for 249 yards against Pittsburgh last year, but 222 of those yards came from 2010 starter Jordan Todman. This year the Huskies have replaced Todman with redshirt freshman Lyle McCombs, who has 705 yards and four touchdowns on the year.
For Connecticut to keep this game close, they have to be able to run the ball. Pittsburgh is 28th in the nation giving up 120.7 ypg, but they have allowed 141 on average over their last three. Without the run game the Huskies will have to turn to a passing attack that is 88th in the country, averaging just 200.6 ypg.
Pittsburgh Panthers:
The Panthers looked like they were going to get back on track after crushing South Florida 44-17 to open up conference play, but this team has done just the opposite. They followed up that win with a 34-10 loss at Rutgers and then were dominated at home by Utah. We will find out a lot about this team this week. Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose a conference game at home against a Connecticut team that hasn’t looked all that impressive.
Pittsburgh’s biggest struggle has been the poor play of their offensive line. The Panthers front five gave up six sacks in their last game against the Utes, and head coach Todd Graham seems to be lost for answers. The best way for Pittsburgh to solve those problems is to be able to run the football. Last week star running back Ray Graham had just 46 yards on 12 attempts. Graham has rushed for 385 and three touchdowns in the Panthers two conference games. Connecticut has allowed 247 on the ground in their two conference games, which is a good sign that Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball.
What this game is going to come down for the Panthers is their ability to take care of the football against a Connecticut defense that has made a living on feeding off opposing teams mistakes. Pittsburgh has 14 turnovers (7 last two games) this season, while the Huskies have forced 16 turnovers in the same amount of games. If the Panthers don’t give Connecticut easy opportunities to score, they should be able to win this came rather easily.
Betting Trends:
Connecticut is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
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