Cowboys 49ers Spread

Written by Jack Jones

In the 1990’s, there was no better rivalry than that of the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Both teams have struggled over the past decade, and each is looking to finally turn the corner this season. Their rivalry gets renewed Sunday as the Cowboys and 49ers meet up in Candlestick Park with kick off set for 4:05 EST. Will Dallas fall to 0-2, or bounce back after a bad loss to the New York Jets last week?

After looking at the Week 2 NFL lines, I find the Cowboys as a 3-point road favorite with a total set of 42.5 points.

Dallas

The Cowboys are coming off a very frustrating 27-24 loss to the New York Jets in their opener. Dallas managed to blow a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter for the first time in 248 games. Tony Romo was a big reason why, fumbling just three yards from the Jets end zone, and getting intercepted late in the fourth quarter. That pick led to the go-ahead field goal by New York. His 95.6 QB rating still ranks fourth-best in league history, but he continues to fold in key moments, and has just an 80.8 QB rating in the postseason. For the game, Romo finished with 342 passing yards and two touchdowns with that one costly interception.

Felix Jones had 44 rushing yards on 17 carries and a touchdown. Jason Witten led all Cowboy receivers with six receptions for 110 yards, while Miles Austin had five grabs for 90 yards and a score. Dallas has some injury concerns heading into this one, especially in the secondary. Orlando Scandrick is expected to miss up to four weeks with an ankle injury, and they could be without Pro Bowl CB Terrence Newman again as he deals with a strained groin. Mike Jenkins missed parts of the New York game with a shoulder injury, and his status is uncertain. Dez Bryant played through a thigh injury last week, and he missed practice on Wednesday.

San Francisco

It was an excellent debut of head coach Jim Harbaugh and his San Francisco 49ers. They took down defending NFC West champion Seattle last Sunday by a final of 33-17. San Francisco continually struggled in the red zone, settling for three field goals in the second quarter before Alex Smith scored on a 1-yard touchdown run with just 12 seconds remaining in the half. With that score, the 49ers took a 16-0 lead into the break. They found themselves ahead just 19-17 with less than four minutes remaining in the game, but Ted Ginn Jr. took a kickoff 102 yards for a touchdown. His 55-yard punt return TD less than a minute later sealed the game for the 49ers.

Smith finished 15 of 20 passing for 124 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. Braylon Edwards caught three balls for 27 yards in his 49ers debut, while second-year pro Michael Crabtree finished with just one catch for four yards. Tight end Vernon Davis was their leading receiver with five receptions for 47 yards. Frank Gore carried the load on the ground, rushing 22 times for 59 yards, averaging just 2.7/carry. He could struggle against a Dallas defense that gave up just 45 rushing yards to the Jets last week.

Betting Trends

These teams last met in Dallas in 2008, with the Cowboys coming away with a 35-22 victory. Gore was held to just 26 yards on 14 carries, while Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns.

The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Cowboys are, however, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas has covered the spread in seven of their last nine games overall.

After a bad rushing performance, the 49ers tend to bounce back. San Francisco is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. They have not fared well after a blowout victory, though. The 49ers are 6-22-3 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. San Francisco is also 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win, and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 points.

Sign up for winning NFL advice from the world-renown Jack Jones this weekend. He’ll show you where to invest your money in Week 2.

Comments

Got something to say?