Home

Buy Sports Picks

Free Sports Picks

Sports Betting Forum

Members Login

Article Archives

Contact Us

Leaderboard

Who's Hot

Recent Results

Cowboys Patriots Spread

Two of the best offenses in the league square off in Week 6 when the Dallas Cowboys visit the New England Patriots Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Dallas has had no problem moving the ball, but Tony Romo hasn’t been able to play at a high level for 60 minutes. They’ll need him to be on top of his game if they are to have any chance to upset Tom Brady and company this weekend. This will be their first meeting since 2007, when New England went into Dallas and came away with an impressive 48-27 victory.

Taking a look at the spreads for Week 6, I find a line of New England -7 over Dallas with a total set of 55.5 points.

New England

The Patriots have been their usual selves this season with the exception of a hiccup against the Buffalo Bills. New England (4-1, 2-0 home) blew a 21-point lead to the Bills and lost 34-31 in Week 3. Over 80 percent of the Patriots offense came through the air as Tom Brady set an NFL record with 1,327 passing yards in the first three weeks of the season. They have been much more balanced since, with Brady throwing for 273.5 yards per game while the Patriots have racked up 335 rushing yards the last two weeks.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been the catalyst, rushing for 211 yards during this span. His 136-yard effort in a 30-21 win over the New York Jets last week set a new career high. He also rushed for two touchdowns as New England got their revenge on the Jets, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. The defense had given up an average of 477.5 yards per game through the first four weeks, but they held New York to just 255 yards despite playing without star linebacker Jerod Mayo.

Even with their best effort of the season, the Patriots still rank dead last in the NFL in total defense (433.0 yards/game). They are 31st against the pass (326.6 yards/game), which is their biggest weakness. Saving the day has been the league’s No. 1 offense (495.2 yards/game) behind 366.6 yards/game through the air and 128.6 yards/game on the ground. Wes Welker has set a record pace at receiver with 45 receptions for 740 yards and five touchdowns.

Dallas

The Cowboys rank near the top of the league in both important offensive and defensive categories. Their problem has been blowing big leads late in games, which can be attributed almost exclusively to the poor play of Tony Romo down the stretch. He committed two late turnovers in a 27-24 loss to the New York Jets which resulted in a blown 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. He was picked off three times in his most recent outing against Detroit, which allowed the Lions to erase a 24-point third-quarter deficit to win 34-20.

The Cowboys now have a bye week to get ready for New England, and for Romo to right the ship. The Patriots have score 30 or more points in 13 straight games, one why of the league record held by the St. Louis Rams. They last time they didn’t reach 30 points came in a 34-14 loss at Cleveland last November, and Rex Ryan was the Browns’ defensive coordinator. Ryan is getting the most out of this Dallas stop unit, as they rank 4th in the league in total defense (291.8 yards/game) and eighth in sacks (13).

Despite poor play late, Romo is still at the forefront of the league’s sixth-ranked offense (417.8 yards/game). The bye week will only help give his cracked rib time to heal, plus he is likely to have his top two receivers available as Dez Bryant and Miles Austin each practiced Wednesday. Bryant has been dealing with a bruised thigh, while Austin had to sit out the last two games with a hamstring injury. Austin’s return would be huge considering he had 14 receptions for 233 yards and four touchdowns in his first two games, and he’s clearly Romo’s go-to receiver when healthy.

Betting Trends

The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Patriots are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Something has to give Sunday.