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Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts Line

This Sunday the Indianapolis Colts will look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss at home when they host the improved Dallas Cowboys. The Colts fell 36-14 to the Chargers on Sunday Night Football last week, and are now tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars a top the AFC South at 6-5. The Cowboys looked as though they were headed to their third straight win,but a fumble by Roy Williams allowed the Saints to get the ball back, and they drove down for the game winning score, handing the Cowboys a 30-27 loss on Thanksgiving. If you are thinking about betting on the game this weekend, the current odds have the Colts favored by 5.5-points over the Cowboys at home.

Dallas (3-8): The Cowboys didn’t exactly get off to the best of starts against the Saints, as they trailed 20-6 at half, but Dallas showed a lot of heart and determination, as they fought all the way back to take a 27-23 lead with just under six minutes to play. The Cowboys then got the ball back, and Roy Williams took a pass 47 yards down to the 11 yard line, before Malcom Jenkins stripped the ball, giving the Saints the ball back to win the game.

Jon Kitna completed 30 of 42 attempts for 313 yards, but finished without a touchdown and one interception on the game. It was still a solid performance against one of the best secondaries in the NFL this season, as they Saints head into week 13 allowing just 198 passing yards a game. The Colts have also been very strong against the pass this season, giving up just 204.5 yards, but a big reason for that is their inability to stop the run.

The Colts come into the game ranked 29th in the league against the run, allowing 136 yards a game. Cowboys running back Felix Jones hasn’t rushed for more than 51 yards in the past seven games, but has been doing a lot of damage catching the balls out of the backfield. Last week Jones caught seven passes for 69 yards against the Saints, and should be in for a big game this week. Marion Barber won’t be able to go this weekend, so look for backup Tashard Choice to get more involved in the offense.

Indianapolis (6-5): Things are not looking good for the Colts, who have lost three of their last four games, but they still have three games left within their division, and with Peyton Manning at quarterback you can’t ever count this team out.

Manning completed 31 of 48 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, but had four interceptions, giving him seven in the last two games. It didn’t help that the running game didn’t do much of anything, as Donald Brown led the way with just 24 yards on 11 carries.

The Cowboys pass defense hasn’t looked very good this season, which is good news for a Colts receiving corps that has been crushed with injuries. Manning though has to take better care of the football, as they simply can’t win when he is throwing that many picks a game.

Looking at the Odds: While I think the Colts will come away with a win this week, I don’t think they will cover the 5.5 point spread. I continue to remind people that this is not the same Colts team we have seen in years past. I expect this to be a close game from the start, with both offenses moving the ball up and down the field. Indianapolis is just 8-19 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992, and are just 11-28 ATS  in home games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. My final score prediction is Indianapolis 31, Dallas 27.