2011 Dayton Basketball Preview

2010-11 Results:

Overall: 22-14 (Home 14-5 Road 6-8 Neutral 2-1 Post-season 1-2)
Atlantic 10: 7-9
Conference Tournament: Lost in the Atlantic 10 championship game to Richmond.
Postseason: Lost in the first round of the NIT to Charleston.

First year coach Archie Miller looks to improve on last year’s team that finished 22-14 overall and 7-9 in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers started 12-3 last year before an up and down conference campaign. Their early season success has to be taken with a grain of salt since they were beating the likes of Central Connecticut State and Western Carolina. During the non-conference schedule they also got pounded by Cincinnati 68-34. The Flyers averaged 67 points per game last year which was 8th in the conference and allowed 65.4 points per game, finishing 6th in the Atlantic 10.

Not only is Dayton changing coaches but they lost three starters and it is difficult to imagine that Dayton will win more than seven conference games in the Atlantic 10 this year. Expect them to be another middle of the pack Atlantic 10 team. Coach Archie Miller will look to guide the Flyers in the right direction and should be an ideal predecessor to Brian Gregory. One good thing for Miller is that he has Chris Johnson. He was second on the team in scoring with 11.9 points and 6.0 rebounds. Johnson will be called on to lead the team. The Flyers will go as Johnson goes. Expect Johnson to put the team on his back and times and make some big shoots from outside. He shot nearly 38 percent from outside last year.

Roster

Returning Starters
Chris Johnson
Paul Williams

Other Returning Players
Devin Oliver
Mitch Asmus
Josh Benson
Josh Parker
Ralph Hill
Matt Kavanaugh
Brian Vonderhaar

Newcomers
Alex Gavrilovic
Kevin Dillard

Head Coach
Archie Miller

Key Losses

Chris Wright is now gone after starting for the Flyers for four years. Last season as a senior he led the team with 13.2 points per game and 8.4 rebounds. Wright and the Flyers were within one win of capturing the Atlantic 10 conference championship and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament losing to Richmond in the conference championship. Devin Searcy is also gone after having averaged 15 minutes per game last year and doing the dirty work inside. Juwan Staten was the team’s top distributor and averaged 5.4 assists per game last year but decided to transfer.

Schedule

Date	Opponent
Oct. 29, 2011	Walsh
Nov. 05, 2011	Findlay
Nov. 12, 2011	Western Illinois
Nov. 15, 2011	Miami
Nov. 19, 2011	UNC Wilmington
Nov. 24, 2011	Wake Forest
Nov. 25, 2011	Arizona State/Fairfield
Nov. 27, 2011	Old Spice Classic
Nov. 30, 2011	Buffalo
Dec. 04, 2011	@ Murray State
Dec. 07, 2011	Alabama
Dec. 11, 2011	South Carolina Upstate
Dec. 17, 2011	Florida International
Dec. 21, 2011	Seton Hall
Dec. 23, 2011	UIC
Dec. 30, 2011	Ole Miss
Jan. 04, 2012	Saint Louis *
Jan. 07, 2012	@ Temple *
Jan. 11, 2012	@ St. Bonaventure *
Jan. 14, 2012	La Salle *
Jan. 21, 2012	Xavier *
Jan. 25, 2012	@ Saint Joseph’s *
Jan. 28, 2012	Rhode Island *
Feb. 01, 2012	Duquesne *
Feb. 04, 2012	@ Saint Louis *
Feb. 11, 2012	@ Fordham *
Feb. 15, 2012	Charlotte *
Feb. 18, 2012	@ Xavier *
Feb. 22, 2012	@ Duquesne *
Feb. 25, 2012	Massachusetts *
Feb. 29, 2012	@ Richmond *
Mar. 03, 2012	George Washington *
Mar. 06, 2012	A-10 First Round
Mar. 09, 2012	A-10 Quarterfinals
Mar. 10, 2012	A-10 Semifinals
Mar. 11, 2012	A-10 Final
*Conference Game

2011-12 Preview

Paul Williams and Chris Johnson will lead this year’s Flyers squad. Williams averaged 8.4 points per game last year and was a killer from the outside hitting over 40 percent of his shots from three point range. Coach Miller will try to get Williams to use his size to attack the basket more often. Josh Parker will also start in the backcourt as the teams point guard. He should average over 10 points a game with around 5 to 6 assist per game. Dayton’s backcourt has a lot of talent though not much depth behind Williams and Parker. The frontcourt though has several players coming off the bench that should contribute. Look for Dayton to qualify for the NIT this year under first year coach Archie Miller.

Backcourt

Josh Parker and Paul Williams will start at guard with Southern Illinois transfer Kevin Dillard being the top guard off the bench. Parker is a redshirt senior who will be the team’s leading distributor this year after the loss of Staten. He is an excellent spot-up player but struggled protecting the ball last year with a turnover rate over 15%.

Williams is an athletic player who knows how to shoot from beyond the arch hitting over 41 percent of his shots from three point range last season. Not only did Williams average 8.4 points per game last year but he was one of the most efficient shooters in the country.

Transfer Dillard will provide depth behind Parker and Williams and could take over for Williams if he struggles this year. He has the knack to hit the outside shot as well as facilitating the offense. The Flyers will hope that he can provide big shots for them this season.

Frontcourt

Josh Benson, Chris Johnson, and Matt Kavanaugh will start in the frontcourt. Johnson is the team’s top offensive weapon and finished in the top 10% last season in scoring efficiency. Not only does he have an excellent shot with a quick release, he knows how to rotate to find open creases on the floor. Additionally he is an excellent player in transition. His lone weakness is when he puts the ball on the floor. He needs to work on improving coming off the dribble.

Benson will also start with Kavanaugh. Benson will work around the rim while crashing the glass for the Flyers. Last season in 17.9 minutes per game, he averaged 5.6 points and 3.5 boards. This year he should contribute around 10 points per game along with 7 boards. Kavanaugh only played 9.2 minutes a game last year but at 250 pounds provides the Flyers with a dominating inside force. One of his weaknesses is his free-throw shooting which he needs to work on or teams will foul him when he goes to the basket. He could really be a factor against smaller teams.

Luke Fabrizius will provide Dayton with depth at forward. He is an efficient scorer who has soft hands when operating in off the screen. Though don’t expect him to be a top scoring threat.

French power forward Alex Gavrilovic will also join the front court. He originally committed to Providence before being recruited by Archie Miller.

More Atlantic 10 Basketball Predictions

Temple Owls	Saint Louis Billikens	Xavier Musketeers	St. Bonaventure Bonnies
UMass Minutemen	La Salle Explorers	Dayton Flyers	St. Josephs Hawks
Duquesne Dukes	Richmond Spiders	Charlotte 49ers	George Washington Colonials
Rhode Island Rams	Fordham Rams

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