2011 Denver Broncos Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Denver Broncos are coming off a miserable 4-12 campaign, and the once storied franchise figures to be in the midst of another rebuilding season in 2011. The Broncos fired head coach Josh McDaniels after a number of poor personnel moves, and will try and get back to contention in the AFC under new head coach John Fox.
The Broncos haven’t made a ton of moves this offseason, which is a clear sign of a team rebuilding for the future. The biggest additions in free agency were the signings of defensive tackles Ty Warren and Brodrick Bunkley and running back Willis McGahee. While the Broncos still have a number of holes that need to be addressed, they did add some quality players in the draft. Most notably outside linebacker Von Miller, offensive tackle Orlando Franklin, and safety Rahim Moore.
Offense:
Once the lockout was lifted it appeared certain that the Broncos would trade away starting quarterback Kyle Orton to pave the way for Tim Tebow to take over the offense. Denver was unable to deal Orton, and have listed the veteran ahead of Tebow on the depth chart. I am not huge on Tebow and his chances of becoming a star in the NFL, but the kid deserves a chance to show what he has. It will be interesting to see who ends up as the starter on opening day.
Starting running back Knowshon Moreno has not been the player the Broncos envisioned when they drafted him in the first round back in 2009. Moreno led the team with 779 yards last year, but had just two 100-yard games all season. McGahee is a nice addition and will likely get plenty of carries unless Moreno emerges in his third season.
Many believed that the Broncos receiving corps would take a huge hit in 2010 after they traded away Pro Bowl wide out Brandon Marshall, but that wasn’t the case. The move allowed Brandon Lloyd to become the go to guy, and he responded with a monster season. Lloyd caught 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns. Denver also got a nice season out of Jabar Gaffney, who finished with 65 catches for 875 yards. The Broncos are hoping Eddie Royal can get back to his rookie form, where he caught 91 passes for 980 yards and they are also high on second-year wide out Eric Decker. The Broncos traded for tight end Daniel Fells, and all signs point to him opening as the starter.
The strength of the offense lies up front on the offensive line. They have one of the top left tackles in Ryan Clady, who should return to form after a down year in 2010. The Broncos drafted guard Zane Beadles and center J.D. Walton in last year’s draft, and both locked up starting spots in their first season. Denver loses right tackle Ryan Harris, but are confident that Franklin can step in and start right away.
Defense:
The Broncos inability to stop anyone on defense was a big reason why they took a major step back in 2010. They finished in the bottom of every major defensive category, and really have a lot of work to do to get this unit back on track. Fox is a defensive minded coach, which will speed up the process, but the Broncos are making the switch back to a 4-3 after failing to succeed in the 3-4 the past two years.
The Broncos had to play the entire 2010 season without outside linebacker/defensive end Elvis Dummervil, who led the NFL with 17 sacks in 2009. Dummervil will make the move back to defensive end, where he originally started his career. Both Warren and Bunkley have a great shot at starting at defensive tackle, as the Broncos other options consist of Marcus Thomas and Ronald Fields. Denver had big expectations for Robert Ayers when they selected him 18th overall in 2009, but he struggled to succeed at outside linebacker. Whether or not Ayers can live up to his potential as a 4-3 defensive end is up in the air.
While I like the pick of outside linebacker Von Miller, I thing he would have been a better fit in a 3-4 system. Miller will give the Broncos another outstanding pass rusher to go along with Dummervil this season. The switch to the 4-3 should benefit D.J. Williams, who is better suited as 4-3 weak-side linebacker. The starting middle linebacker spot is up for grabs between veteran Joe Mays and rookie Nate Irving.
Denver decided to lock up future Hall of Fame corner Champ Bailey for another four years, which is a big positive for the defense as he continues to play at a very high level. The problem is the rest of the secondary started to show its age last year. Andre Goodman has been hit or miss at the other starting corner spot, and who knows what veteran safety Brian Dawkins has left in the tank at 38. Moore was a great pick for the Broncos in the draft, and should step in right away and start for the departed Renaldo Hill at the other safety spot.
Prediction: 4th AFC West, 4-12 Overall – I don’t expect the Broncos to make a whole lot of progress in their first season under Fox. This team will be transitioning on both sides of the ball, and really lacks the talent needed to be a serious contender in the AFC West. The key will be figuring out what players are worth keeping for the future, as I don’t expect the organization to be down for long.
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