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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – Game 4

Written May 11, 2009 by Jack Jones

mavs-nuggets The Denver Nuggets are now 61-29 SU and 52-37 ATS on the year and will be looking to finish off the Dallas Mavericks on game 4 of their second-round Western Conference playoff series. The game will take place at 9:30 EST inside American Airlines Center in Dallas with the Mavs currenlty favored by 2.5 points.

Denver took a 3-0 lead in the series on Saturday with a little of game-ending controversy. Carmelo Anthony hit a three point shot with one second on the clock to gie the Nuggets a 106-105 win, but many people thought a foul clearly should have been called on Dallas before the shot was taken. Dallas had a foul to give, which would have meant time wasted with no free throws being shot and the Nuggets having to inbound the ball again.

Either way, the Nuggets were probably going to cover the 3.5 point spread unless they went for two and sent the game into overtime so the NBA betting on the spread wasn’t affected, but the 209.5 point total sure was as those who took the NBA odds on the OVER were extremely happy. Those on the UNDER not so much.

There are plenty of interesting trends going on this game tonight. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS following a strign up win while the Mavs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 playoff games in which the Nuggets were underdogs of less than 4.5 points, while the Over is 4-0 the last four times the Mavs have been a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Denver is 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of this series.

Teams that have been on the verge of being closed out in a sweep have done poorly against the spread in past games, but Dallas should have an emotional edge tonight. Denver has a couple of home games to close out the series if they don’t win tonight, but the Mavs felt like the Nuggets were disrespectful after their win on Saturday night. They probably want to put their best foot forward tonight.

I’m staying away from this game, but if I had to play it I would probably go with Dallas -2. Check out the NBA picks from our other experts to find out who they are taking.

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