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LA Dodgers at Philladelphia Phillies Game 1 Preview, Odds & Predictions

Written October 8, 2008 by Jack Jones

It’ll be Derek Lowe against Cole Hamels in the first game of the 2008 National League Championship Series when the LA Dodgers head to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Both of these teams pretty easily took care of their opponents in the Divisional Series and now are itching to return to the World Series. The odds on Game 1 show the Phillies as a -133 favorite over the Dodgers at BodogLife. Make sure that if you plan on betting the baseball game that you check the latest MLB odds here at the site to know where you can get the best line on each side.

Sure Derek Lowe hasn’t lost since August 26th, but this year he struggled on the road more than he did in front of the home crowd. His ERA is 4.42 in road starts compared to 2.30 at home and that isn’t just a fluke for this year. Over his career Lowe’s ERA is a full run higher on the road than it is at home. One of the reasons for that is how heavily he relies on his slider and how hitters hit .290 against it on the road compared to .091 at Dodgers Stadium.

Cole Hamels is establishing himself as one of the best young, left-handed pitchers in the game and one of the reasons for that is his outstanding changeup. Nobody throws it more often than Hamels, except maybe Johan Santana and hitters swing and miss 39% of the time against it. He runs into problems when his changeup is creeping up above the hitters’ knees, and also when there are runners in scoring position and he’s facing the heart of the lineup. That’s not good news when the heart of the Dodgers lineup contains a force like Manny Ramirez.

The Dodgers lineup won’t scare anyone, and they only batted .250 in their three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs. The difference though is Ramirez, who went 5-for-10 with a 1.743 OBS (on-base + slugging percentage). He bats .318 off of changeups, which isn’t good news for Phillies fans and he seemed to get more comfortable against Hamels in each of the eight at-bats he had this year. Matt Kemp batted .369 this year against lefties, but he struggled to a 3-for-13 performance in the NLDS. He needs to come up big for the Dodgers in this one. The Dodgers odds are the best at +125 at BetUS.

The Phillies need Jimmy Rollins to return to his 2007 form. His numbers weren’t bad in 2008, but you could tell he was slightly hampered by injuries in taking a big dip in both average and slugging. He sets the table for the team, and seeing him on base gives Chase Utley and Ryan Howard the chance to score some runs.

Final Analysis

This seems to be a pretty good matchup for the Dodgers. Even as well as Hamels has thrown the ball here lately, and the struggles that Lowe has had on the road, I feel the LA lineup matchups up better with Hamels throwing than the Phillie guys do with Lowe. I’ll take LA at +125 at BetUS.