Dodgers & Phillies NLCS Predictions
Written October 15, 2009 by Freddy Wills
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Championship Series. The baseball odds show the favorites are the Dodgers at -120. If you are going to do any baseball betting on this series then take advantage of the dime lines and 50% signup bonuses being offered by Sportsbook.com. Also, if you are looking for a quality baseball handicapper to help deliver winners to you to finish out the season, Freddy Wills has been near the top of the leaderboards all season long. You can’t miss out on any of the MLB picks he will be putting out to finish off the season.
Pitching
As of Tuesday morning the starting pitchers have still not been declared although it looks like Cole Hamels will make the start for the Phillies.
Overall the Dodgers have the edge as they led the Big Leagues not only in overall ERA, but in bullpen ERA. On the flip side the Phillies were ordered 7th overall and 13th out of their bullpen. The weaknesses are clear in the bullpen as the Phillies had a lot of questions on who would be closing out games, but those questions have all been resolved if you trust Lidges 2 saves were the real deal against the Rockies.
We will likely see Wolf, Padilla, and Kershaw, and perhaps Garland or Billingsley if the Dodgers settle on a 4 man rotation which is what squads ordinarily do at this point. While Philadelphia will go with Hamels, Lee, Happ, Martinez, and possibly Blanton. So we have 5 possible pitchers on each team.
Dodgers SP who might struggle:
Randy Wolf – who will be the ace of the Dodgers again gave up 6 ER in Dodgers Stadium in June to the Phillies on 6.1 innings and 8 hits. However, the Phillies are hitting just .261 off Wolf and Wolf owns left-handed hitters which the Phillies have plenty of.
Jon Garland – Phillies are hitting .309 off him and in two starts this year one, at home and once on the road, he went 11.1 IP allowing 8 ER on 16 hits.
Phillies SP who might struggle:
Joe Blanton - Dodgers sluggers have a .295 average off Blanton in 129 AB. However, Blanton pitched solid in his 1 start vs. the Dodgers as he went 6.1 innings and gave up just 1 ER.
Edge: Dodgers
Hitting
Both of these teams have first ballot hall of famers in the middle of their lineups in Manny Ramirez and Ryan Howard. It can be argued that Utley is also a Hall of Famer. Their are two strong deviations between these teams and that is power vs. average. The Phillies are ranked #21 in average while the Dodgers are in the top 5 at #4 in the major leagues. Does that mean the Dodgers are the sounder offensive team? No, not necessarily. Sometimes in these big games what counts is clutch hitting and a home run late in a game.
The Phillies have the advantage in the power category as they have 224 HR compared to the Dodgers 145. I think the Dodgers have more power than many believe, but it will come into play in this series. While the Dodgers play small ball the Phillies can blast a 3 run HR for a quick lead. Small ball in my view does not invariably transform into big clutch hitting. If we are talking selective clutch hitting you have to give it to Philadelphia who came from behind with 2 outs and trailing 4-2 in Game 4 to win 5-4. It was the middle of the lineup that got it done in Howard and Werth.
Edge: Even
Bench
Whenever you have two respectable players coming off your pine like Jim Thome or Juan Pierre you have the two elements of a bench player that you want. Juan Pierre is a guy that can get on base and perhaps steal a base. Jim Thome is a guy who can come in a key match up and hit a home run to tie the game or take the lead. The Phillies on the other hand have Miguel Cairo, Ben Francisco and Matt Stairs none of which should intimidate the superior Dodgers bullpen.
Edge: Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers in 6 games – Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of this series when they are at home. The Phillies bullpen will really hurt them in this match up. The Phillies took advantage of the Rockies weakness vs. LHP and this won’t be the case versus the Dodgers as LA hit .270 vs. both lefties and righties, but score +.59 more runs per 9 innings vs. LHP than righties. Bottom line pitching wins titles and the Dodgers with their bullpen have the major edge!
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
- Phillies Rockies NLDS Predictions
- Dodgers/Cardinals NLDS Predictions
- Philadelphia Philles at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview & Predictions
- Baseball Picks: LA Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
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