Dolphins Cowboys Line


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The Dallas Cowboys will look to stay on top the NFC East when they host the Miami Dolphins this Thanksgiving. Both teams come in riding three game winning streaks, and what looked like an easy win for Dallas a month ago, now figures to be a big time challenge. The Cowboys suffered a rare loss on Thanksgiving last year, falling 27-30 to New Orleans. Dallas is 24-15-1 on dating back to 1966 when they beat the Browns 26-14.

Taking a look at the week 12 spreads, oddsmakers have the Cowboys favored by 6.5-points over the Dolphins with the total set at 44 points.

Miami Dolphins:

The Dolphins have looked like a completely different team over the last three weeks. They aren’t just beating teams, they are winning easily. No one thought this team was  as bad as their 0-6 record led on a few weeks back, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming. Miami hasn’t allowed a defensive touchdown in three straight wins over Kansas, Washington, and Buffalo.

The offense has also seen a huge rise in production over the last three games. Miami is averaging just over 28 ppg during their winning streak, compared to just under 18 ppg during the first six games of the season.

The Dolphins scored a season-high 35-points in their 35-8 win over the Bills this past Sunday. Matt Moore went 14 of 20 for 160 yards and three touchdowns, as the Dolphins jumped out to a 28-6 halftime lead. Reggie Bush added a five yard touchdown run, and Lex Hillard scooped up a blocked punt for a defensive score.

Miami finished the game with just 242 yards of total offense, but that was mainly because they chose to run the ball and eat up the clock with a huge second half lead. Daniel Thomas and Bush each carried the ball 15 times, but had just 82 yards combined.

As good as Miami has been of late, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the offense struggle to get going against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Dallas is 13th against the pass (227.2 ypg) and 11th against the run (101.4), and have allowed a total of just 27 points in their last three home games.  If Miami is going to win this game it will be because of their defense.

Dallas Cowboys:

The Cowboys looked like they were headed in the wrong direction after losing 7-34 at Philadelphia back in week 7. It was their third lass in four games, and they were just 3-4 overall on the year. However, this team has responded with three straight wins, including a huge 27-24 overtime win over Washington on Sunday.

There were plenty of momentum shifts in the Cowboys and Redskins matchup. Dallas jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but went into the fourth quarter down 10-17. They would score two quick touchdowns to take a 24-17 lead, but allowed Washington to force overtime by scoring a touchdown with just 14 seconds to play. Washington would get the ball first in overtime, but a missed field goal gave Dallas the opportunity to drive down and win the game on a 39-yard field goal from Dan Bailey.

Tony Romo really stepped up and delivered a big game, throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns, despite playing the game without star wide out Miles Austin. Romo didn’t get much help from the running game. DeMarco Murray had just 73 yards on 25 attempts and the Cowboys finished with just 89 rushing yards for the game.

Dallas comes in averaging 25 points a game, but they figure to be put to the test this week against the Dolphins. Miami hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown in the last 12 quarters, and are holding opposing offenses to just 71 rushing yards a game during their winning streak.

Betting Trends:

Miami is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus good rushing teams – averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas is 3-12 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

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