Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins Odds
The Miami Dolphins (5-8, 3-3 home) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11, 1-5 away) to Sun Life Stadium for an AFC showdown this Sunday. Taking a look at the odds for Week 15 pro football, I find a line of Miami -7 over Jacksonville.
Why Miami Covers
The Jaguars are statistically the worst team in the league. They have been playing real bad of late against lesser competition. Following an 18-34 loss as a 6-point underdog at Buffalo on December 2nd, they came back last week and lost at home 10-17 to the New York Jets as a 3-point underdog.
Jacksonville ranks a woeful 31st in the league in total offense at 282.9 yards per game. While it had a respectable defense last year, that certainly hasn’t been the case this season. It ranks 31st in the league in total defense at 393.5 yards per game. As you can see, it is getting outgained by an average of 110.6 yards per game, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
Miami comes in battle-tested after two straight close losses to two of the best teams in the league. It lost at home 16-23 to New England on December 2nd, then lost at San Francisco 13-27 last week in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. It held the Patriots to just 321 yards and the 49ers to only 321 yards as well in the losses.
Jacksonville is 16-32 against the spread after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992. Miami is a perfect 6-0 against the spread off a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 14.3 points per game.
Why Jacksonville Covers
The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 4-1-1 against the spread. They won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their four road covers.
Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 against the spread in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against almost any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
Miami is just 15-32 against the spread versus poor offensive teams that average285 or fewer total yards since 1992. It is only winning in this spot by an average of 0.7 points per game. The Dolphins are also 2-11 against the spread in home games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.