Dolphins Patriots Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The New England Patriots got a lot of things to go right for them last week. Now, the Patriots look to take care of their business once again as they host the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium this Saturday. These teams met in the opener in what was one of the best offensive displays of the season. Tom Brady threw for a team-record 517 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Patriots to a 38-24 victory on September 12th. New England has won three straight over Miami, outscoring the Dolphins 117-45.

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed a line of New England -9.5 over Miami with a total set of 48.5 points for this Week 16 showdown.

New England

The Patriots entered last week tied with three other teams for the best record in the AFC. After Baltimore, Houston and Pittsburgh all lost, the Patriots are now in sole possession of first place in the conference. That means if they control their own destiny, and if the Patriots win out, they will earn the No. 1 seed. They would earn a first-round bye, and the route to the Super Bowl would go through Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots rarely lose.

New England (11-3, 5-1 home) is coming off a statement win. They handed Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos a 41-23 loss on the road last week to put an end to their magical run. The Patriots fell behind 16-7 early, but responded by scoring 27 unanswered points while forcing three turnovers. New England didn’t give the ball away once, and Tom Brady was magnificent. The reigning MVP threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, finding tight end Aaron Hernandez nine times for 129 yard and a score.

The Patriots head into Week 16 ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense (426-2 yards/game) and 30th in total defense (414.3 yards/game). Their stop unit gave up 167 rushing yards in the first quarter alone last week, which is certainly concerning. But their offense has been able to make up for it all year, averaging 31.2 points. Brady has thrown for 4,597 yards with 35 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Wes Welker leads the league with 104 receptions for a career-high 1,380 yards and nine touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski has 75 receptions for 1,141 yards and 15 touchdowns, which is an NFL record for a tight end.

Miami

The Dolphins have been one of the most impressive teams in the league over the last few months. This team deserves a lot of credit for not quitting after their 0-7 start, which meant that they almost certainly would not be going to the playoffs. Miami has won five of seven since, though it wasn’t enough to save head coach Tony Sparano’s job. Interim coach Todd Bowles stepped in last week, leading the Dolphins to a 30-23 victory at Buffalo.

Reggie Bush led the way in the win over the Bills, rushing for a career-high 203 yards and one touchdown. Quarterback Matt Moore continue his stellar play, completing 10 of 20 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns. They did have to overcome three fumbles offensively, but their defense was able to answer by intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick three times. Miami finished with 448 total yards in one of their best offensive performances of the season.

Miami (5-9, 2-5 away) comes in ranked 21st in total offense (321.0 yards/game) and 15th in total defense (339.2 yards/game). Moore and Bush have been the biggest reasons for their turnaround, couple with improvement defensively. Moore has thrown 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his last seven games, while Bush has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games. For the season, Bush has rushed for 973 yards (5.0/carry) and six touchdowns. Brandon Marshall leads all receivers with 70 grabs for 1,021 yards and five scores.

Betting Trends

Miami is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing with six or less days rest.

New England is 26-10 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season since 1992.

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