Drawing to Outs Post-Flop
Written February 6, 2008 by Jack Jones
If you have the best of it on additional money going into the pot, you should try to maximize the additional money going into the pot. If given the money in the pot by the end you have odds to chase, you should at least call. Keep in mind that betting or raising will often give you additional ways to win the pot. If you don’t have odds to chase or bluff, you should fold.
BETTING OR RAISING FOR IMMEDIATE PROFIT
Try to get money into the pot if you will win the pot more than your fair share. You will win more than your fair share of the time when you have more than the number of outs shown below for the number of opponents:
| Betting or RaisingBreakeven Win Chance & Outs for # of Opponents |
|---|
When you have a strong draw, you usually want to keep people in, so think carefully about how to keep them in while increasing the pot size. Consider all your options. When no one has bet you can check-call, bet, or check-raise, and when facing a bet you can call, raise, or call-reraise.
Your outs are the number of cards that will complete your hand. For example, if you have JT and the board is KQ23, then any ace or nine will give you the nut straight, and there are four of each of those, so you have 8 outs. Here are some of the common draws:
| Outs When Drawing One Card |
|---|
Your effective outs are your potential outs fudged downwards to better reflect your actual chances of winning the pot. For example, if there is a two flush on board and you think the flush draw is out there, then instead of 8 outs for a straight draw you effectively have only 6, as the other 2 cards bring in your opponent’s flush draw.
On the flop, if you are planning on taking your draw to the river, then you effectively have a bit less than double the number of outs for one card:
| Equivalent Outs When Drawing Two Cards |
|---|
For the runner-runner draws, you need to use both your cards, except for an ace that makes a 3-flush. You should usually treat them as just 1 out, not 1 1/2 or 2, since a lot of things can go wrong with them.
CHASING
When you can’t make money on additional money going into the pot, you still have to consider whether the pot will be worth chasing, considering your chance of winning it. For example, if the pot were 5 big bets on the turn, and it would cost you one big bet to call, you are getting 5 to 1 odds to call. Suppose you had a hand that would win 1 time for every 5 times it lost. In that case, if you were getting 5 to 1 odds from the pot, then your call would have an average result of zero, right on the border between calling and folding. If the pot were any bigger (like if you could expect a call on the river) then it would be clear case to call, and if the pot were any smaller, then it would be a clear case to fold.
Before explaining how to figure out precisely whether or not you should chase, here are some guidelines:
Rules of thumb for calling on the turn: Usually, call one bet with open-ended straight draws and flush draws, and with a medium pot size you can call two cold. With a set you should usually be calling all bets (or raising, of course.) Two overcards are usually no good to draw with on the turn, except sometimes heads-up. When the pot is big, you can call with a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.
Rules of thumb for calling on the flop: Call with any draw that you would call with on the turn, often for two bets cold or more. Call with gutshots to the nuts if you can be pretty sure you will only have to pay one bet. Also for one bet, a pair with a backdoor flush draw is very worthwhile, and so is a backdoor flush draw with a backdoor straight draw, and similarly for other combinations of weak draws that together become worthwhile. Be reluctant to call with overcards, unless heads-up or the board does not have many draws and you are pretty sure you have the best overcards, like AQ in an unraised pot.
With a little practice, you can be a lot more precise. You can learn to keep track of the big bets going into the pot almost subconsciously, and hence you can know the current pot size at all times. With a little experience, you can estimate the amount of additional action there will be. And your chance of winning is simply represented by your number of outs.
Your effective pot size is how much you can expect to win at the end if you indeed win. It’s the current pot size plus expected action. Generally that will be at least one big bet bigger than the current pot size, possibly many more big bets if you expect a lot of action.
Your effective pot odds are the effective pot size divided by the amount you have to call.
You should at least call when your effective outs times one more than the effective pot odds is greater than the number of unseen cards. The number of unseen cards is usually 46 on the turn or 47 on the flop. Recast the effective pot size in units of the number of bets you will need to call.
For example, suppose the board is:
| Flop | Turn |
|---|
You have: Tc 9c
Preflop an early ultra tight player limps, a middle player calls, you call late, and both blinds call. On the flop, the small blind bets, the big blind folds, the early player raises, you call, and the small blind folds. On the turn, your remaining opponent bets, then turns over red pocket aces, tells you he knows you are on a straight draw, explains that you don’t have odds to call, and begs you to fold since he doesn’t want to risk losing. What should you do?
There are 6 big bets in the pot now. Unless he is sure about your hand he will check and call on the river if a nondiamond jack or six comes, so the effective pot size is more like 7 big bets, and your effective pot odds are the same since you are facing only one bet. Your effective outs are exactly 6, assuming you cannot bluff him out on the end.
The answer is “it depends.” It depends on your opponent. 6*(7+1)=48, which is greater than 46 (or 44 in this case), so you should call if he will pay you off, but if he will fold if and only if a nondiamond jack or six hits, then you get 6*(6+1)=42, and you should fold.
BUYING A FREE CARD
You can raise in late position on the flop with the intention of checking it through on the turn. Seeing the river card is not free in this case, but half price. Actually, it’s a bit less than half price, since your flop drawing odds are better than your turn drawing odds. Savvy opponents are well aware of this play from flush draws, however, and may thwart it by betting into you on the turn. Use this play sparingly, mostly when you have big overcards versus a few weak opponents, and you can always adopt-a-flush-draw if the flush draw comes in (that is, bet to represent a made flush.)
SEMI-BLUFFING
Your opponents cannot fold if you never bet or raise. Betting or raising usually is worth at least 4 outs, sometimes 20 or more outs, in terms of increasing your chance of winning the pot. Sometimes when you would have to check and fold rather than check and call, you can bet profitably instead. The combination of a chance of winning with your draw and a chance of your opponents all folding can make betting (or raising) more profitable than checking (or folding.) David Sklansky coined the term “semi-bluffing” to describe this concept.
If you’ve been betting hard the whole the way, your opponents may not put you on a draw, and may fold to your bet on the come, or to your bluff bet on the river, allowing you to steal a large pot. For this reason, and since you presumably cannot win in a showdown without making your hand, think twice about taking a free card on the turn, if you think a bet there or on the river might buy you the pot.
A MADE HAND WITH A DRAW
Sometimes you will have a pair and a flush draw, or other combination of a hand that may be best and a draw. When your made hand is vulnerable or likely already beaten by fairly weak hands, you usually should play such a hand very hard, trying to force out better hands and hands that could draw out on your made hand, with your draw as a backup in case you get called down by a better hand. Even with a very strong hand like a made straight with a flush draw, you might wish to play it hard, hoping to get almost unlimited reraises from an equivalent straight that you are “freerolling” to beat with your flush.
CONCLUSION
For novice players, this information can be of great use between sessions to answer that nagging question, “should I have called?” This will improve their intuitions in similar situations in the future. For veteran players, this information can be used in real time at the tables to make better decisions.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Poker Tools: Position, Chips & Cards
- 2009 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
- 2009 Preakness Stakes Post Positions
- Aggressive Play in Limit Poker
- Oklahoma v. Texas Football Picks
Got something to say?
No comments yet, but your thoughts are welcome!