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Duke vs. Butler Championship Game Predictions

After a season with much excitement and a whole lot of parity, we’ve finally reached the NCAA Championship game. The hometown Butler Bulldogs will play in Indianapolis against the Duke Blue Devils. Butler reaching this point is a major shock given that they come from such a small conference and were given an extremely tough road to the Final Four. Duke was the #1 seed in their region, but many experts did doubt them. Both teams have proved they deserve to be here. Who will step up on Monday night?

Butler had to beat Syracuse, Kansas State, and Michigan State in their last three games to get to this point. The Bulldogs have done it because of their amazing intensity on the defensive end of the floor. Brad Stevens has done a tremendous job getting these guys to buy into his system, and easy shots are extremely rare against these Bulldogs. How good have they been of late? The Bulldogs have won 25 games in a row! Butler allows just 59.4 points per game and is the 12th best defensive rebounding team in the country. On the offensive end, Gordon Hayward is their star player. Hayward averages 16 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game. The sophomore is a solid shooter, but he seems to have a knack for getting open and driving to the bucket as well. Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard were both dinged up in their Final Four game against Michigan State. Mack is expected to play, but Howard is questionable because of a mild concussion. Howard is Butler’s best presence down low, and they will definitely need that presence against Duke.

The Blue Devils absolutely ran West Virginia off the floor on Saturday night to get to another title game. Duke continues to batter teams on the glass and get a tremendous amount of points on second chance opportunities. This team guards three point shooters extremely well, allowing opponents to shoot just 28% from behind the arc. On the offensive end, they have plenty of firepower to go around. Jon Scheyer is a pure shooter and averages 18 points per game, while shooting 39% from behind the three point line. Kyle Singler is a great inside and outside threat. Singler gets 7 rebounds per game, but also shoots 40% from three. Nolan Smith has stepped up his game in a big way in the tournament and has carried this team in some of their closest games, most notably against the Baylor Bears. Duke is a team that is capable of winning a slow grind it out type of game or a fast paced game. Duke is a well-balanced team that will be tough to beat.  The lines show Duke as a 7 point favorite. The posted total is set at 129 points.

Predictions:

I think that the Butler Bulldogs are a little out manned here, but I think because of their defensive intensity they do have a chance in this one. Gordon Hayward will need to outplay Kyle Singler by quite a bit, and the Bulldogs will need Shelvin Mack to penetrate the Duke defense. If Butler settles for three’s all game, they won’t win this one. I think Hayward will show up and play very well here. I also think Nolan Smith could have a big game again. Smith is a tough cover and Butler may have trouble containing him.

I’ll be honest, I’m hoping Butler pulls off the upset here because it would be a great story, but I do think the Blue Devils are likely to win this one.