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Duke vs. West Virginia Predictions

After a wild and crazy road, we have finally reached the Final Four. Only Duke remains of the top seeds, and there are some definite Cinderella stories. The match up between Duke and West Virginia pits a #1 seed against a #2 seed. West Virginia upset Kentucky to get here, while Duke held down a strong Baylor squad. The winner of this game will almost certainly be favored in the Championship game on Monday. Will Bob Huggins finally break through and get to the title game or will Coach K be on his way back to a familiar place.

The Duke Blue Devils have been a very consistent team all season, and for their standards they have been able to stay a bit under the radar. If you look at the statistics, you’ll see Duke doesn’t have many weaknesses. They average 77.4 points per game and allow just 61.1. They are the sixth best free throw shooting team in the country and they are strong on both the offensive and defensive glass. They shoot 38.2% from behind the three point line and allow their opponents to shoot just 27.8%. Duke has three main scoring threats in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. On Sunday, Singler had a terrible game, but the other two picked up the slack for him. Brian Zoubek is a much improved post player and the Plumlee brothers both can make noise from the forward spots off the bench.

The West Virginia Mountaineers will likely be without starting point guard Truck Bryant, but they are tough group that is capable of winning even with a short-handed back court. West Virginia’s statistics don’t jump out at you as being terrific as much as Duke’s, but they are pretty good at most everything. West Virginia fares well on the boards and plays solid defense each and every possession. The Mountaineers are definitely a team stacked with talented forwards. Da’Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, and Kevin Jones are their top three players and they are all naturally forwards, though Ebanks and Butler have been serving in the back court some of late. Butler is a veteran who has proven he can hit the big shot numerous times in his career.

The current lines show Duke as a 2.5 point favorite and the posted total set at 131 points.

Predictions

Both teams have been playing very good basketball of late, and I think both of these teams are very capable of winning the tournament. A few weeks ago most people, myself included, thought Duke was the weakest top seed, but they have looked strong in the last few games. West Virginia fought through their lack of back court depth in the Kentucky game, but you have to wonder if it will end up costing them at some point. I think Duke will win the battle of the boards and they will hit more outside shots than West Virginia. Duke will win a tight one here.