2011 East Carolina Football Predictions


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The East Carolina Pirates were one of the most exciting football teams in the country last season. They played like an Arena League team, putting up a ton of points on offense, while allowing the opposition to post monster numbers against their defense. ECU managed a 6-7 record and a bowl bid in Ruffin McNeil’s first year as head coach. They would lose 20-51 to Maryland in the Military Bowl, and enter the 2011 season having lost three straight and five of their last six overall.

The Pirates welcome back 12 starters this season along with 50 lettermen. They will be tested very early with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the land. They play South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina in three of their first four contests, while also having to travel to face Navy in October. Here is a look at what McNeill has to work with on offense and defense heading into his second season on the job. I also give my prediction on where ECU will finish in Conference USA below.

Offense:

The strength of the team was clearly on offense in 2010, where the Pirates racked up 36.8 points and 438 total yards/game. The bring back senior QB Dominique Davis, who earned second-team All-CUSA honors last season by throwing for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. He also finished third on the team in rushing (300 yards, 9 TD). Davis will be one of the top QB’s in the league again this year, and he’ll be working with one of the best WR corps in CUSA as well.

Senior WR Lance Lewis earned second-team All-CUSA honors last season after finishing second on the team with 89 catches for 1,116 yards and 14 touchdowns. They do lose their leading receiver in Dwayne Harris (101 catches, 1,123 yards, 10 TD), but bring back senior Michael Bowman (47, 434, 3). Senior Darryl Freeney (1,070 receiving yards in 2008-09 combined) was not with the team last season due to academic reasons, but he returns to take over the starting spot left by Harris. Sophomore Justin Jones (21, 211, 5) is expected to start, while junior Andrew Bodenheim (40, 370, 2) is a returning starter off the bench. With a ton of experience coming back in the second year of this new offense, the Pirates are going to get excellent production from their receivers.

The Pirates lose their top two rushers from last season in Jon Williams (847 yards, 10 TD) and Giavanni Ruffin (384 yards, 2 TD). They bring in the #1 JUCO rusher from 2010 in Reggie Bullock, who is expected to start right away. They also add two very talented freshmen in Alex Owah and Chevelle Buie to the mix. Their leading returning rusher is sophomore Michael Dobson (62 yards), who will have a hard time finding carries behind these three recruits that McNeill brought in.

The offensive line did a nice job opening up holes last season. While ECU only rushed for 119 yards/game, they did average an outstanding 4.3/carry. Davis is an elusive QB, but the O-line still allowed just 15 sacks all year. This unit is going to have a tough time matching that production as they lose LT Willie Smith (first-team All-CUSA, 2-year starter), RG DJ Scott (second-team All-CUSA, 4-year starter) and G Cory Dowless (4-year starter). The Pirates only have two starters returning and 27 career starts combined up front. Junior C Dalton Faulds made 10 starts last year, but he’ll be returning from an injury that kept him out of spring ball. Sophomore RT Grant Harner made CUSA’s All-Freshman Team last season and he’s the best they have coming back.

Defense:

ECU featured one of the worst defenses in the land last season. Their stop unit didn’t do much stopping at all, allowing 44.0 points and 479 total yards/game in 2010. Six starters return on this side of the ball, but only two of their top six tacklers are back. Opposing teams ran wild on the Pirates for 227 rushing yards/game on 5.3/carry. It was the most yards they’ve given up on the ground in over 20 years, and they only registered 15 sacks as a team. They do bring back three starters along the defensive line for their 3-4 scheme. They are sophomore DE’s Matt Milner (47 tackles 7 for loss) and Derrell Johnson (49 tackles, 4.5 for loss), along with junior NG Michael Brooks (29 tackles, 3.5 for loss). This was a raw unit last season, but should be much better with one more year of experience under their belts.

Clearly, the Pirates need much better play at the linebacker position. That will be hard to get considering they lose their #1 and #2 tacklers in first-team All-CUSA WLB Dustin Lineback (119 tackles) and MLB Melvin Patterson (94 stops). ECU will be breaking in four new starters at linebacker with sophomores Ty Holmes and Justin Dixon, along with juniors Joseph Banks and Marke Powell. Blanks is a talented JUCO transfer, while Dixon is likely the best of the bunch after missing all but four games last season due to injury.

The secondary suffered last season in large part to poor play along the front seven. ECU yielded 252 passing yards/game on 59.8% completions in 2010. Fortunately, three of the best players on the entire team return in the secondary. They are led by senior CB Emanuel Davis, who has earned first-team All-CUSA honors each of the past two seasons. Davis has combined for 168 tackles and 37 passes defensed in his three years here. Senior CB Derek Blacknall finished #4 on the team in tackles (73) last season and also had 8 passes defensed. Senior SS Bradley Jacobs was the team’s #3 tackler (80) and finished with 10 passes defensed. These three return, while sophomore FS Damon Magazu steps into a starting role after making one start and registering 30 tackles with 1 interception last year. While this unit is stronger, it’s still going to suffer due to inexperience at all four LB positions.

Conference USA Prediction: 4th Place East Division – While the Pirates feature some of the best playmakers in the entire conference, there are still way too many holes on this team. Their offense will once again be explosive, but the defense is not going to be much better than they were a year ago. ECU caught some breaks early last season with a 2-point victory over Tulsa, a 1-point win over Southern Miss and an overtime triumph against NC State. What sticks with me is how they finished the season, losing five of their final six contests. I believe THAT is the team you are going to see in 2011, one that finishes with a losing record and misses out on a bowl game. The conference schedule does set up decent with UCF and Southern Miss at home, but I don’t see them winning either of those contests. A third-place finish in the East is the best they can hope for, though I have them slotted fourth.

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Comments

3 Responses to “2011 East Carolina Football Predictions”

  1. Chris on July 23rd, 2011 11:31 PM

    ECU will probably finish 3rd in the conference this year NOT 4th. I believe you have it right in most categories but we will be better and we will beat UAB too. The defense may not be great but it will be somewhere in the 90′s rank this year (mark my word). ECU offense will be as good or better, I believe we will win 1 or 2 Non Conference games this year too. I believe we will finish 7-5 (5-3 in C-USA). MARK MY WORD!!!!

  2. Coach Ruff on August 6th, 2011 4:16 PM

    I think your right about the prediction , it doesn’t look like our defense is getting any better. I’m not sure why coach Mitchell still has his job. How many other coaches who finish dead last in defense or offense keep their job? I think the offense will be just as good if not better. Riley is a young genius and I believe with Davis and Lewis back the throwing attack won’t miss a beat . I think the running game won’t change much either. Last year it was obvious that passing was the main threat , but you didn’t mention rs sophomore Torrance Hunt who is also competing for running back. Coming out of high school had the best 40 time in the nation . Look for him to get some action at running back and return this year. Over all I see us going 6-6 and making it back to a bowl game.

  3. Arganito on November 3rd, 2011 7:18 PM

    8-4 in season Hawaii Bowl win over Hawaii. Losses: SOuth Carolina, VIrginia Tech, North Carolina, Houston. Wins: UAB, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Southern Miss, UCF, UTEP, Rice

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